The sun is shining and we are at the start of WARMING TREND! To most people, that is good news. Take a look at this graph. It shows what the models are indicating for the next 7 days. The trend is upward:
Ryan
Warming Trend Starts NOW!
Ryan
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So Far, So Good. No worries.
As of right now, I'm not budging on the forecast. The evening data from one model (NAM) is odd. I'm still trying to see why it is so different from previous runs. Regardless, it still keeps the accumulating snow south of Region 8. It does show the third wave (mentioned in previous blogs) on Tuesday PM bringing a swath of snow through Memphis. I'm not sold on that yet. Here are my bullet points at 10:00 PM:
- Flurries or brief snow showers in Region 8 could bring a dusting to very ISOLATED areas. Not widespread on Monday morning.
- At this time, it appears that most of the accumulating snow stays south of Region 8.
- We still need to watch the 3rd wave closely. That is Tuesday evening. At this time, I'm not concerned, but let's watch it. I don't want something to sneak up on us!
I feel pretty confident that my kids are going to school for 5 days this week. Let's hope!
Have a good night!
Ryan
Some Snow, Just Not That Much
I'm back in the office and sipping some coffee. I'm glad to be getting back into my routine, but I wish I could come back to an easier forecast. The snow coming in tomorrow is painfully close, but I'm cautiously happy to report that most of it will stay south of here. Notice, I said "most", not "all". So, here are the bullet points at 3:30 PM on Sunday for the storm coming in tomorrow and Tuesday:
- Most of you will see snowflakes falling.
- BUT, Most of you will not see much accumulation.
- The greater chance for significant accumulation is south of I-40.
- I see three chances for snow over a 36 hour period
- First chance is tomorrow morning (Monday AM) and it could give some brief snow showers for Region 8 and could give some spots a dusting, even on roads. Key words: BRIEF and LIGHT.
- I suppose there is a chance that it will be enough to cancel some schools, but I don't speak on behlaf of the schools.
- Second chance is the main round. It comes in tomorrow night and mainly gives snow to areas south of the KAIT viewing area, aka Region 8. I expect it to clip White, Woodruff, Cross, St, Francis, and Crittenden counties.
- Third chance is the chance I just noticed. There could be some brief snow showers Tuesday, during the day. This is still questionable, but if it materializes, could bring a dusting in some parts of Region 8, especially in the White river Valley area. Stay tuned.
- So, with all of that said, here's what we are thinking right now:
Stay tuned and we'll keep you updated! I plan to look over more data tonight and should have an update between 9:00 and 10:00 PM.
Have a great Sunday!
Ryan
Will We Miss The Snow?
I'm not completely sounding the all clear, but most of the snow in the forecast tomorrow will likely pass south of Region 8. If you read the blog last night, I was strongly leaning to this solution and I agree even more after the morning data. Here are the bullet points as of 10AM on Sunday morning:
- The kids will go to school more this week than last week!
- Most of the snow will go south of the KAIT viewing area.
- In Region 8, White, Woodruff, and St. Francis counties have the best chance of an accumulating snowfall.
- The best timing is for tomorrow evening (Monday night), but flakes may fly at any point tomorrow.
- While the better chance of accumulating snow is south of us, we will still see some snowflakes flying across all of Region 8.
- Don't panic when the previous bullet point occurs. :)
- The "fly in the ointment" might be freezing drizzle. It made the roads slick this morning and it could do that again tomorrow morning. Subtle, but dangerous. We'll watch for it.
- Here's my thinking as of 10AM on Sunday morning:
In conclusion, this can still change. It's Arkansas and Missouri weather and we can be thrown a curve ball at any time. We're going to be tracking it closely as it unfold. I'm heading back to work tonight and will be on Region 8 News at 5:00 and 10:00.
I have not had a fever in several days and I feel a lot better! I'm just tired. If I get out of breath for talking for 3 minutes tonight, forgive me! :) I'm so ready to get back to my normal routine.
Have a great Sunday,
Ryan
Will It Snow on Monday? Not So Fast...
Most of us are sick of snow and there is a lot of talk about more snow on Monday. While there is a chance of snow and Winter Storm Watches have been posted for parts of the state, there is a CHANCE that we MISS IT.
< insert brakes and screeching tires sound>
That's right, I'm not completely sold on a decent snow, YET. We use several computer models to help us determine the forecast. These models have their own strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes one model is working better than others, and some models work better in different seasons. One of the models we use is the GFS. The GFS has been doing a spectacular job this winter! With that said, I feel we need to look closely at it's solution. 4 of the last 5 model runs of the GFS have the low tracking farther south and leaving most of Region 8 with just a dusting (at best). In fact, here's the latest snowfall projection from the GFS:
If you notice in the above image, the GFS is showing a swath of 1-3" in Central Arkansas, with some spotty areas getting a dusting in Region 8. Being the father of 4 kids that have been out of school for 9 days, I like the GFS solution! But...
The NAM model has been the most aggressive with snow. It has a wider swath of snow and slams the state with a lot more moisture. Take a look at the difference:
As you can see, there's a lot more snow with the NAM and now you see the forecasting dilemma! The NAM still shows the heaviest snowfall south of Region 8, so I'm confident in thinking we don't get the bulk of the snow, BUT do we see 1-3"? That's what I'm not sold on, yet.
Here are my bullet points at 10:30 pm on Saturday night:
- This forecast is still questionable.
- With that said, I feel confident that the heaviest will be south of Region 8, along and south of I-40.
- Anything that falls will stick immediately.
- Timing is also questionable. NAM is faster and bring the snow in during the day on Monday. GFS is slower and brings it in Monday evening and night.
- We will know much more tomorrow.
I'm sorry that I'm still on the fence on this storm, but that is why we do not get too cutesy with snowfall projections until the storm is closer. We should know MUCH more tomorrow evening.
I'm going back to work tomorrow to give Andrew a break. He's been working for 9 days straight while I've had the flu and I greatly appreciate it. I used more sick days this week than I have in several years combined. The flu was no joke. In fact, I'm still tired and I get out of breath, so cut me some slack tomorrow if I look and act like death! LOL At least I'm not contagious.
Have a good night and we'll chat tomorrow (Sunday),
Ryan
Back to Tracking Weather
I'm still staying quarantined to the bedroom until sometime tomorrow and I'm not going back to work yet, but I'm feeling much better. I'm being cautious because I don't want my family or coworkers to get sick! The flu is no joke.
I have started to look at data again and sadly, we're looking at more wintry weather in our future. I just exchanged some texts with Andrew and we both agree that a dusting to 1", maybe 2", is possible Friday night. Here are the he bullet points for Friday night:
- It's not much, but enough to cause some travel problems.
- Isolated areas might get 1-2", but most stay close to 1".
- Snow will likely start after sunset on Friday evening and will end by sunrise on Saturday.
- We go above freezing on Saturday.
Beyond that, a stronger storm system will impact Region 8 Monday into Tuesday. I really hope this part of the forecast changes, because it could lead to more school days in June. Here are the bullet points:
- Storm track is still uncertain.
- Appears to give us snow Monday evening into Tuesday.
- Too early to pinpoint accumulation amounts.
- Temperatures will easily be cold enough to support wintry weather.
I have no maps to share because I'm blogging on a mobile device. Hopefully I can share more sometime tomorrow. Have a great night.
Ryan
Tuesday's Ice Potential
First off, I feel like garbage. I do not sick too often, so when I do, I complain a lot. So there's my complaint. I ran out of breath doing weather earlier. That can't be a good thing.
Anywho, there is no time to be sick because we have another winter storm coming in tomorrow. Let's break down the bullet points:
- This is NOT as bad as 2009, but power outages are expected.
- Sleet and freezing rain should start overspreading Region 8 in the morning. SW portions of Region 8 (White, Cleburne, Independence, Woodruff) could have precipitation as early at 8:00 am.
- The rest of Region 8 should have sleet and freezing rain start between 10am-Noon.
- Precipitation TYPE will be tough to forecast. We know there will be a warm layer aloft that will melt the snowflakes, but will those drops have time to freeze into SLEET or will they fall as rain and freeze on contact? That's the million dollar question. Probably both at times...
- Sleet makes for bad roads, freezing rain causes power outages. Pick your poison.
- WATCH out for ice glazed sidewalks!
- This should be gone by late afternoon, or at least much, much lighter.
Here is what we're thinking as of 8:15 PM on Monday evening:
If you hear more sleet than freezing rain, then you will likely have no power problems. If you have rain and your thermometer is 32 or below, you are at a higher risk of losing power. If it's snowing, then enjoy it! I doubt many of us will see just plain ole rain, but if it is raining and 33 or above... Sit back and count your blessings!
I'm going to lay down for about 30 minutes before prepping for the 10:00 News. Have a great night and be safe tomorrow.
Ryan
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