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News starts in 5 minutes, so there is not much time to blog. BUT the chance for some Wintry Weather still exists on Wednesday. At this time, I think we will have more sleet than anything and it will be VERY light. The only problems will be on a few bridges and overpasses.

I'll chat more about it later.

Ryan

The NAM model is trying to show some snow for us on Wednesday morning. Models are not agreeing too well on this system, but we will need to watch it. Most data shows some upper-level energy, but the NAM shows a slightly stronger "vort" max or "spin" in the atmosphere and more moisture surging in from the Gulf of Mexico. This solution is not out of the question and the NAM did decent with the last system, so it does hold some water.

Here's a pic of the Greene County Rescue Squad helping a toddler and some young men from the flood waters in Greene County. We have said it time and time again, but PLEASE do not cross roads that have water over them. We still have a few more hours of rain and there will be more roads flooded. For a list of roads that are closed, click here: http://www.arkansashighways.com/roads/Web-road%20closings.htm

Be safe and stay tuned for more info,
Ryan

Some new data coming in tonight suggest that we "could" see more than flurries in some locations Thu into Fri. This is just one model run, so we'll have to see how this unfolds. It shows the low tracking a little more south and east. This would leave the moisture around when the cold air arrives.... briefly. The NW counties of Region 8 stand the best chance of seeing accumualtions, including Sharp, Stone, Izard, Fulton, Baxter, Oregon, and Howell. If you notice on the map, the GFS model even has some 1" totals near Pocahontas and Walnut Ridge. The rest of us, including Jonesboro are left in the "dusting" category.

I usually would not hop on one model run, but it's Christmas and I'm really wanting some flakes to fly! It was a nice surprise to see this shift in the forecast. Hopefully it pans out. More updates are to come on my Twitter feed on the right side of this page.

Merry Christmas!
Ryan

Take a deep breath and know that this is just a forecast and can change! Several pieces of data have consistantly shown snow falling on Christmas Eve. A deepening area of low pressure combined with cold air could provide us with some accumulating snow on Christmas Eve. IF I had to put a percentage of a "White Christmas" out there right now... I would say it sits at about 30%. It's so many days off that I can not go much higher than that.

The above graph shows 2 runs of of the GFS model and both show an accumulating snow on Christmas Eve..... The NAM does not go out that far.

We'll watch it closely and will tweak the forecast as needed!

Ryan

My oldest boy turned 7 this week and my youngest turned 5. I can't believe how fast they are growing. Two or three times over the past month I have heard people comment that they have never heard, "Man... I spent too much time with my kids as they were growing up". It never happens. It makes me feel guilty when I hear people with grown kids makes comments like that. I hope I am doing right!

My boys are awesome. Smart, well behaved, athletic young boys... (It's my blog and I can brag and say what I want!) I just hope that I have no regrets when they leave the home one day. I hope I feel like I spent time with them. I hope that I feel like I raised them in a Christian home. I hope they are good citizens of the community, servants of God, and men that carry integrity and honor. I hope they become great fathers and even better husbands.

I've written about Rick Burgess on my blog before. Rick is the DJ in Alabama that lost his young son in a pool accident. During the funeral, he looked over at the rest of his kids' and said that he no longer hopes and worries about the worldly achievements they may have in life, whether it involves schooling, sports, etc... He says that a as parents, our only job is to teach their kids about God, Jesus, and the principles and rules of the Lord. Everything else will fall in place.

Pray that I take that to heart.

For Fun, Go look at my at blog from December 2004: http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/2004_12_01_archive.html  Scroll down and look at the days when George was born. I WISH was blogging when Shad was born, too... Oh well. Can you believe the blog has been around since 2004!

Have a great weekend,
Ryan

Duck season started on Saturday and radars in the Midsouth were tracking ducks! Well, probably Snow Geese and Canadian Geese in addition to Ducks, but waterfowl nonetheless! This is not abnormal, this article in Outdoor Life notes NEXRAD picking up on migrating waterfowl in the past.

When I awoke on Saturday morning, I first looked at radar. With the Low passing to our South, I had a tiny 10% chance of rain in the forecast, so I wanted to see if most of the showers were staying South as expected. When I glanced at radar, there was a big blob of green heading South. I was confused at first, because if any rain had formed... it should be going NE (like the showers in MS seen on this radar loop).

My wife walked in shortly after sunrise from running several miles and I asked her if she heard ducks or geese while she was running. She said "YES"... tons of them. In addition, some friends of mine that were hunting heard a ton of them overhead just before sunrise. Well... that matches up with the radar image! There were also reports of an abundance of "droppings", but I can't confirm that! LOL

Maybe Hammertime and Bob Snell need to invest in a portable radar!

Take care,
Ryan

I love having a fireplace again. I know it is mild outside right now, but we still had a fire last night. I grew up with a fireplace and that's one thing I missed when we lived in a home without a fireplace.

After last winter's ice storm, it's going to be easy to find firewood this season!

I know it is a short blog post, but now that we are calming down... more bloggin' is on the horizon!

Ryan

So, we moved this weekend. If it were that simple, it would be nice! Since we are "The Vaughans", at least one of us had to end up in the ER and this time it was my youngest. We marked our territory in the new neighborhood with a big puddle of blood from a bike accident. Dr. Wilson at AMMC did an awesome job with him and seems to be really good with kids. He stitched him right up! If AMMC offered a frequent flyers program, we would be due a round trip to Hawaii for the entire family! Luckily we had witnesses again, so DHS is not going to visit us... We actually had two OR nurses, a children's pastor, and a pediatric dentist at our house at the time, so he was in good hands! Unfortunately, we have to go see that Pediatric Dentist regarding the accident tomorrow. He's gonna be a tough kid! :)

Overall, everything is going smooth. We are doing some remodeling, so we currently living with the inlaws. Hopefully, we are not getting on their nerves! We hope to be out by the weekend. We'll see how that goes...

If you are one of the 350 people that emailed me over the past few days.... Give me some time and I'll try to get through all of them! It's amazing how fast the inbox fills up!

Take care,
Ryan

Ryan

20.0 FLOOD IN APRIL 2008 ROSE TO 20.81 FEET. PORTIONS OF OLD TOWN FLOODED. SPRING STREET FLOODED. WATER UNDER MOST ELEVATED HOMES ALONG THE RIVER BANK.

18.0 LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. HOMES AND BUSINESSES ALONG THE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FLOODED.

16.0 SERIOUS FLOODING IN FULTON AND SHARP COUNTIES ALONG THE RIVER. DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH SWIFT WATER RUNNING THROUGH CAMPGROUND AND UNDER HOMES ALONG THE RIVER. SEPTEMBER 2006 FLOOD CRESTED AT 16.8 FEET. LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

14.0 HOMES ON PILINGS ALONG THE RIVERBANK HAVE WATER UNDER THEM. RIVER BEND CAMPGROUND AND OTHER LOW LYING RECREATIONAL FACILITIES ARE FLOODED.

12.0 SOME FLOODING IN THE CITY PARK AND IN RIVER BEND CAMPGROUND. WATER MAY BE NEAR HOMES ALONG THE RIVERBANK.

10.0 WATER IS BREAKING OUT OF THE BANKS AND FLOODING LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

As you may know, the Vaughans love carving pumpkins! Here are our pumpkins this year! My wife did the Autobots one, we shared the work on Scooby, and "Hello" is my masterpiece! Anyone know who it is?

If you want to see our pumpkins from previous years, there is a dropdown on the right side of the blog to go to Octobers of 2007, 2006, and 2005...

Happy Halloween!
Ryan

PS- If you can't figure out the third pumpkin, CLICK HERE.

It's not even November and we are the 8th wettest year on RECORD! The HPC (Hydrological Prediction Center) is forecasting 5"+ of rain across Region 8 over the next 48 hours. If that happens, we will go up to #3 and maybe even #2. As of right now, we are at 61.50" Here's the Top 10 Wettest years on record:

1. 72.18" 1957
2. 66.35" 1937
3. 65.39" 1973
4. 65.33" 1906
5. 64.21" 1898
6. 63.75" 1927
7. 62.19" 1945
8. 59.18" 1923
9. 55.73" 1921
10. 55.38" 1970

Stay Dry!
Ryan

We all know that I do not control the weather, BUT it's been hard to look farmers in the eye recently. This weather has been HORRIBLE for them. Wet during planting, HOT during June, and wet and cool during the hot season. Now, it's past time to harvest and it's still too wet in some fields. With that said, I have more bad news....

This week looks wet! While some cutting and picking can still be done on Monday, Tuesday is looking wet! THEN, more rain will come on Thursday night into Friday! Before we end this week, we may have 4-5" added to our totals!!! We are already up to the 8th wettest year on record and it is only October! I fully expect to move up a few slots by next weekend. The above image is the 5-Day precip forecast from NOAA.

Farmers are going to be working hard on Monday. If you see them out and about this week when it is raining, give them a hug!

Ryan

It's a fuzzy cell phone picture, but this is the scene of a double-fatal accident on Highway 49 this evening. I encountered it on my way home. It appears that a truck ran into the back of another car and spun it off of the road. The driver of the truck was transported and was not doing so good, from what I was told. I am not sure which car the fatalities came from... My prayers go out to both families.

This was actually the second wreck I encountered on my 15 minute drive home. The first did not have any ambulances, so hopefully everyone was ok. It was on Highway 358.

FINALLY, the oddest thing of the night came over the radio scanners in the StormTRACKER. A couple had called the Sheriff's Department after finding a toddler in the middle of the road on Highway 141! It's 11:00 PM on a very rainy night and we have a toddler on the highway.... There are several things I want to say, but I won't. I'm sure you have the same feelings.

There are families in deep pain tonight. It really makes me appreciate the family I have and makes the little things I worry about seem silly.

By the way, as of right now... the toddler is riding around with a Greene County deputy. He's trying to tell them which house is his.

Ryan

Edit- This morning I learned that the victims in the accident were young. For some reason, seeing young people die is harder. My thoughts and prayers go out to the families of Candace Scott and Tyler Tritch. Also, Seth Tripod was transported to the hospital. I'm not sure about his condition at this time, but please pray for him and his family. Seth graduated from GCT last year and was the starting QB. I've met him several times while shooting football for GCT. Good kid.

Rain is to blame according to the State Police report.

So what rocks in your life? Hopefully a lot of things ROCK. If not, get some rocks in your life. Jesus called Simon by a different name.... Peter. The name Peter comes from "Petra" or Πέτρα or Rock. For the record, Peter rocked too.

Have a great Saturday,
Ryan

• It would be sunny and 75° today.
• I'd be rediculously rich.
• We would never have ice storms.
• I'd take bribes for snow from kids and teachers.

If we start to see a little sunshine, it will promote MORE sunshine. We just need to get the atmosphere stirred up a bit.

With that said, it's a tough forecast. Will we see clouds or clearing? If we clear out, how much warmer will that make the temperatures? Regardless, it will still be a little chilly!

Ryan

I'm going to be watching the current conditions, visible satellite, and the special lunchtime wx balloon (sounding) in Little Rock today. You can check the statewide currents by clicking here. As of noon, we already had some juicy air, with 70°+ dewpoints overspreading the state. Clouds were breaking up and temperatures were into the upper 70s and low 80s! In addition, low level winds are increasing. Harrison already had wind gusts to 30 mph.

Below is a nerdy weather program we use called BUFKIT. This is the morning run of the NAM model. A few things to note for this evening... First, CAPE is over 2000. Anything over 1500 would concern me today. EHI is a combination index of shear and instability. Anything over 2-3 would concern me today and it is up to 7. Finally, the old classic "Lifted Index" is down to -6 or-7... anything under -3 or -4 is a red flag. IF, and I did say IF this happened... severe weather would be likely. We'll continue to watch everything unfold and I will update my Twitter feed on the right side of my blog...

Before I sign off, SPC has issued their new outlook. 10% chance of tornadoes has been noted in Region 8. That may not seem that high, but it is when referring to a tornado threat! The blue "hatched" area is a 10% or greater probability of tornadoes EF2 or greater from 25 miles of any given point. That's comforting, right?
I'll be updating Twitter through the day unless we have to go on air.

Stay tuned,
Ryan

PS-Sun just peaked out at my house!

NASA has a collision with the moon scheduled for Friday morning! If we did not have clouds and rain in the forecast for Region 8, I would encourage everyone to grab a telescope and check it out. Instead, we will have to watch it on NASA TV.

I could ramble on about what I have learned about the mission on the blog, but it's probably better to just send you to NASA for the full summary. Click here to read about the mission.

You can watch it Friday morning on NASA TV at 5:30 AM and coverage starts at 5:00 AM. Here's the link to NASA TV: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html

Ryan

As a young boy, I LOVED playing cars! I bet I had 200 cars. In addition to cars, I had cities, railroad tracks, and ramps to go with the cars. A few years ago, my mom surprised me by giving us some of my old cars and a fold-up city. My boys play with that city these days, just like I did when I was a young boy. While playing "city" with my youngest son today, I noticed this old fire truck. I can remember playing with this exact car when I was his age! As you can tell, it's been called out on a few fires! I'm shocked that it's still around... and drivable!

Here's one of the pictures I showed tonight on the news. If you have been watching, I've been showing old pictures in celebration of Jonesboro's 150th birthday. This is the old water water located between Main Street and Madison. While the water tower is the focal point of the picture, I was more interested in the building at the top of the picture. (click to enlarge)

That's the old Jonesboro High School. It was destroyed on May 27th, 1973. That tornado killed 4 people in the city and caused MAJOR damage.

I've been searching for pictures of the old Jonesboro High School. If you have one, email me at ryan@kait8.com

Have a great night,
Ryan

You may have noticed today that I am sharing some old photos of Jonesboro on the news in celebration of 150th year of the city. I'm having a great time showing these pictures and I hope you are enjoying them as well.
I've always been a fan of old pictures and I like to find buildings that are still there. Take a look at these pictures and you'll see several landmarks that are still downtown!
There are several more pictures to show you this week! I look forward to showing more on Region 8 News at 5:00 and 6:00... and maybe 10:00.

Have a great night!

Ryan

PS- Do you have any old photos of Jonesboro? Email them to me at ryan@kait8.com

The other day, we looked at some old records of the 86-87 El Nino winter to help forecast this year's upcoming winter. Tonight, let's take a look at another El Nino winter, 1997-1998.

Once again, these are some old climate logs from Terry Wood. This first one is Dec of 1997. There are a couple of things to note. First, notice the wintry weather on December 8th. While it was only an inch or so of Sleet/Snow, it closed some area schools according to Terry's notes. That's a early season event for this area! Flurries lingered for a few days, too. We had another couple of days with some light sleet/snow at the end of the month. Accumulations were not noted. I'll talk more about this later, but note the "windy" wording on Christmas Eve. (click image to enlarge)
This next chart is from January of 98. There are a couple of icy events noted, but once again, Terry notes a very windy day on the 7th...

Meteorologist Sarah Tipton and I were just talking about Saturday's forecast. It appears "mostly dry", but there is still a small hiccup. If we did not have a home ASU game, I would not be as concerned, BUT we have thousands of people going to the game and they need to know the forecast!

Below is the NAM model. We call this the 500mb level and it shows us where the "spin" or "vorticity" is in the atmosphere. We typically talk about "Upper-Level Disturbances" based on these maps. The below image is for late Saturday. The bright yellow and oranges indicate an upper-level disturbance moving in behind today's system to our north. This MAY be enough to give us a sprinkle or light shower in SOME parts of Region 8 on Saturday. This is why we have not completely taken out rain chances yet... even though it is only a 20% chance! Click image to enlarge...

Below is the BUFKIT program that lays out certain parameters of the same NAM model and model run. Notice that it DOES show a little sprinkle or shower possible between 5PM-8PM. With that said, it only shows a little over a TRACE of rain. IF this happened, it would hardly be enough to dampen the roads. Click to enlarge and remember that the timestamp goes from right to left.

It's looking like this El Niño pattern is going to persist into the Winter. As a refresher, an El Niño pattern is noted when there is a shift in water temperature and atmospheric conditions in the Tropical Pacific ocean. The "long name" is the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the triggers behind it are still not fully understood and are still being researched.

Looking back at El Niño winters of the past can give us a "possible" glimpse at the 2009-2010 Winter. I say that cautiously, because there are variations and nothing is guaranteed.

With that said, a colder winter now appears possible. Precipitation is still questionable. El Niño winters in the past have not shown a termendous amount of precipitation, BUT the storm track is just south of us...

I have some really cool things to show you over the next few days. I'm going to look up some data reagarding some El Niños of the past. You'll be shocked to see what I dug up on the 97-98 winter and the 86-87 winter.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Look at the rainfall estimates from the isolated storm that formed in South Jonesboro today! Doppler radar estimates 3-4"of rain in some spots. Most of this came down within 30 minutes!
Some pictures were sent to us showing the flooding in parts of Jonesboro. These pictures were sent from Crystal Crawford on Neely Road. The picture below is the most amazing. There is a river going through the neighborhood!!!