January 2010 | ryansmorningblog-Bay-Net

Top 5 Snowfall?

7:25 PM |

The official totals for this storm are not in yet, but this storm is close to the Top 5 snowfalls for Jonesboro. Here are the Top 5 for Jonesboro:

12" on 2/19/1921
10" on 1/7/1988
8"on 2/25/1979
8"on 3/5/1965
8"on 1/9/1944

Many locations in Region 8 have seen 10"+, but I'm just talking about Jonesboro. As you can see in the above picture taken at KAIT's Lauren Payne's house in Jonesboro... This storm has to be close or in the Top 5! Oh... and more snow is about to move in!

Big thanks to Bill Borghoff at the NWS for finding these numbers for me!

Ryan

What A Storm!

7:04 PM |

Here's my favorite picture of the storm! Mainly because it makes me feel warm and fuzzy after being a nervous wreck about this storm for 7 days! WHAT IF... What if nothing fell? What if the storm completely fell apart after we talked about it for SEVERAL days? Would we still rule? Would you still watch? Would you believe us?

I don't think you guys know how much we stress over our forecast. You guys buy milk, bread, batteries, cancel schools, and change your lives based on the forecast. If it does not happen, that is a HUGE burden on us! I'm literally a nervous wreck until the storm passes! Just for giggles and laughs, here's the forecast from 6 days ago taken straight from the aircheck... This was on Saturday, so it's Justin's (J-Lo) forecast. Not too shabby J-Lo!

As you can see, the winter storm was in the forecast 6 days out. Once again, props to J-Lo for pinpointing this last Saturday!

Before I sign off of the blog tonight, I want to share a couple of my favorite pictures sent in... One is of Le Le from the Memphis Zoo and one was titled... "It's cold outside"... You can see other pics and videos at THE LOOP by clicking here.

Have a great night!
Ryan

Good Summary From NWS

2:35 PM |

The NWS in Little Rock has put together a good summary of this storm:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=win0110b.htm

Ryan

Winter Storm Update, Wed 11:30 AM

9:30 AM |

This forecast is going to be VERY, VERY tricky! My confidence of a winter storm is fairly high, so be happy teachers and kids. BUT, my confidence in precipitation TYPE is not that high. So, power company workers need to listen up! I'm going to make this blog post as simple as possible! These three images are the latest runs of the GFS model. That's one of the models we are looking at with this storm. BLUE IS SNOW, ORANGE IS SLEET, and RED IS ICE GLAZE (freezing rain). GREEN IS PLAIN RAIN.

The above image is JONESBORO. Notice that it has some sleet and then snow. Listen up. Sleet accumulates less than snow. Same amount of moisture, but it is not fluffy like snow. Therefore, 4+ inches of snow is equal to 2" of sleet roughly. Maybe even a larger gap. So forecasting to the inch is going to be nearly impossible.

Forecast becomes a little easier at Lake Norfork. It looks like it will be all snow there. That area could get about 10" of snow. See the image below... all blue.

Now let's head down to Memphis for their forecast model sounding...

Things really get ugly down toward Memphis... and this includes the Wynne area. They may have a big ice storm on their hands. That one green line is bogus. They will likely see enough ice to cause power problems.

So let me list off some things that can screw up our forecast:

First, the moisture could be robbed by storms along the coast. It has happened before and that theory can not be ignored. That would greatly lower totals.
The cold air could REALLY comes in and we would be all snow in places that we are anticipating some sleet. As mentioned, that would make the totals higher.
Convective activity. It is possible to have Thundersnow or Thundersleet in this event. As with Thunderstorms, the precipitation would be higher in those spots... even if it is isolated.
Storm track moves north or south. This would shift our forecast north and south.

So, those are the things that we will be watching for. IF we see any of that occuring, we will pass that information along and adjust our forecast accordingly. Once again, the forecast of a Winter Storm can change easily!

Stay tuned,
Ryan

Winter Storm Update, Tue 11AM

10:06 AM |

I'm going to throw out some numbers, but don't hold them to me. This forecast is going to be teaked a few more times, especially since it is slowing down a lot and is not expected to start impacting us until late Thursday. I have a few points to pass along...

First, since this system is slowing down, cold air is going to have more time to come into the Midsouth. This should push our ice threat to areas along I-40. Little Rock to Wynne to Memphis need to be ready for that. The weather in Jonesboro should be all sleet and snow after some brief rain. The image above shows you the temperature and dewpoint as you go up through the atmosphere. Everything to the left of the blue line I drew is below freezing. If those green/red lines dip to the right of that... Then we have to look at a sleet/freezing rain setup. As I said, some will see both of those at times.... especially along I-40.

Second, the amount of accumulation is going to be tricky. If we get all snow... we get more. If sleet is mixed it, we get less. While sleet lowers the totals, it makes the roads worse. Most of the precip will fall Thursday night and Friday. Here are my thoughts on totals... Drum roll please...

I think Jonesboro will see .20" freezing rain, then 4-8" of sleet/snow.

Hardy, Salem, and Mtn. Home areas may see 6-9" of snow/sleet

Searcy, Augusta, Wynne, and Marion seeing the most ice with 0.50"-0.75" and 1" of sleet/snow.

As you can see, there will be a sharp drop off! This forecast will probably change and be tweaked, but that's what I'm thinking as of right now.

The above image is the morning run of the GFS model for Jonesboro. It shows mostly snow and the totals are quite wild. I won't even mention them, but they are more than my forecast at this time! I am still thinking we will have sleet mixed in and that will lower the totals... but still a substantial storm.

With that said, I do think there will be some "sweet" spots in the Region 8 viewing area that will have optimal snow potential and will see over 10". It's hard to pinpoint those spots right now.

I think the kid's will be in school on Thursday, but Friday is questionable.

Stay tuned!

Ryan

Winter Storm Brewing?

9:14 PM |

It's still a few days out and A LOT CAN CHANGE! With that said, I hope the data does start changing. At this time, Region 8 could be dealing with a major Winter Storm on Thursday and Friday. The"type" of precipitation is going to be critical and tough to forecast. With a change in temperature in height, we could see every kind of precip. Latest data suggests we will start as rain, then change to freezing rain and sleet, and then to snow.

It's way too early to talk about amounts, BUT the icing could be significant and the snowfall could be significant. Let's hope we trend warmer and this is all rain with temperatures above 32°. That would be alot nicer than what the data is suggesting!

Remember, the above graph is a computer model and not a forecast. The time goes from right to left. In addition to the winter storm, it shows VERY cold air for the weekend.

STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES,

Ryan

Winds Today, Tracking Next Thursday

8:04 AM |

The main threat today (Saturday) will be the winds. Even outside of any thunderstorms, thewinds are going to be blowing pretty hard for a "couple" of hours.... not all day. I think the winds increase ahead of the main line around 3PM in the Ozarks and then through the heart of Region 8 around dinner time... maybe an hour or two later. The worst of it will be long gone by 10PM. Those times can change, but that's what I'm seeing right now. Twitter updates will be found on the right side of this page.

The SPC has us in a "slight" risk for severe weather again. They believe the main threat will be winds as well. The lacking ingredient for severe weather is "instability", but the winds aloft will be zooming pretty good and that alone may cause some issue. Winds at the surface may go 20-30 mph. Winds 5,000 above our head will be blowing at 70 mph!!! Let's hope none of that transports to the ground.

Next Thursday, heavy rains will fall again over Region 8. As cold air comes, that may end in a few flakes. We'll take this one storm at a time!

Ryan

Small Hail and a Cussing

10:46 PM |

We had some some hail fall in Joneboro this evening as the storms moved through. Most of it was pea-size, but there were some reports of it being a "little" larger. Regardless, it was NOT severe. The National Weather Service defines a "severe" storm as a storm with winds over 58 mph and/or hail that is 1" in diameter. That is about the size of quarters. Tonight's hail was nowhere close to being "severe".

One viewer called and cussed me for not having a warning out for the storm. First of, KAIT does not issue the warnings. That is handled by the National Weather Service. Second, the storm was not severe. Heavy Rain, lighting, thunder, and even penny-size hail does not constitute a warning.

According to radar, it appears the best place to see hail was on the Eastern Side of Jonesboro near Turtle Creek, ASU, and the airport. Hail this small does not cause damage... it just makes the rain louder.

FYI- the above image is a loop of Vertically Integrated Liquid. One way to pinpoint hail...

Have a good night,
Ryan

Severe Threat Today?

8:39 AM |

It's Wednesday at 10:30 AM as I type this and storms are refiring in the central part of the state. While the storms may not be widespread, they may pack a little bit of a punch. We're still lacking some of the ingredients for a widespread severe weather event, but enough of the parameters are in place that we need to keep a watchful eye. The SPC has already highlighted this area for the potential of severe wx. See that outlook by clicking here.

Looking at the mesoanalysis of the region, we can see that the air is a little more unstable in the SW part of Arkansas. The area of instability is growing northward and our air is expected to become more unstable as the afternoon comes... The big question is how unstable will we be in Region 8? We'll have to wait and see, but with the peaks of sunshine I have seen... we may be pretty unstable.

In addition to the unstable air, the winds through the atmospere are favorable for strong storms.

Stay tuned,
Ryan

Soaking Rain Later This Week

6:03 AM |

We should have a good round of rain by the middle of the week. Unlike this weekend, it appears that we will have some thunder and lightning with this round. While I can't rule out severe weather, the threat looks really low at this point. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our region for the next storm system this weekend, but it's too early too worry about that right now.

Enjoy today because more rain is coming, especially on Wednesday. I'm expecting 1-2" of rain across the region. That will wash off any leftover salt!

Have a great week!
Ryan

Haiti Quake Detected in Arkansas!

4:06 PM |

Look at this Helicorder from Harrisburg, AR. You can clearly see the shaking going on during the large 7.0 Quake in the Caribbean (Haiti)... not to be confused with Hayti, MO. This is the largest quake to hit that region in history.

To give you a reference point, the below image is a Helicorder display from yesterday when things were not shaking as much. You read a helicorder like a book... with time.

We'll have more on this major Earthquake on Region 8 News.

Ryan

Not Much, But Roads Are BAD

8:31 AM |

We did not have a lot of snow/sleet out there, but it made the roads very dangerous! Latest map still shows problems across Region 8. I'm going to have live streaming video in the Wood Ford StormTRACKER on Midday from Paragould and an update on the cold weather at 5:00 and 6:00.

Stay warm
Ryan

Snow, Keep-Away, And QPF

6:19 PM |

I feel like the kid left out. People to our SOUTH may get more snow than us, if they get cold enough! Anywho, let's talk about QPF....QPF is Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts OR simply put, the liquid equivalent that will fall (rain, sleet, snow, etc) from the sky.

Notice the darker greens to the north where they will get hammered with snow and notice the darker greens to the south where they will get rain... and maybe some snow. Regardless of the precipitation "type", look at the void spot in little ole Region 8.

We're in the black hole of QPF!!! The Gulf Coast is robbing us of moisture and the Yankees are hogging it all to the north! We're left in the middle like the little kid in a game of "keep-away"...

Don't give up though snow lovers. As of 8:00 PM, it is snowing in parts of Region 8. I still think we may squeeze out an inch of snow. Come on everyone... start snow dancing!

If you have already bought your eggs, milk, and bread AND you do not get snow.... Have a French Toast Party tomorrow night for the National Championship game on KAIT! It's gonna be too COLD to go anywhere else!

Stay warm!
Ryan

Latest Data

7:48 AM |

I've been basing our forecast on a 15:1 liquid to snow ratio, which may be a little conservative. The latest data suggests 2.2" of snow in Jonesboro on a 15:1 ratio. The forecast is still on track. At daybreak tomorrow morning, it should be snowing. Single digit lows are still in the forecast too. So, despite what you may have heard elsewhere, our forecast has not changed much...

We'll have more information on the snowfall on Midday, 5:00, and 6:00.

Stay warm!
Ryan

Snow Update...

6:37 AM |

No huge changes in the forecast. Models have flip-flopped a little on amount, but the data coming in RIGHT NOW (12Z NAM) still gives 1-3" of snow across Region 8, with about 2" in Jonesboro. I'll blog more about it later today.

Ryan

Snow... Cold.. and Maybe Some Ice?

8:10 AM |

We have a lot to talk about on this Tuesday morning. First, we still appear to have some snow coming in on Wednesday night. You have probably heard of the common 1:10 ratio on rain to snow when talking about accumulations, but the snow ratios will be higher with this storm.... Should be more like 15:1 for this event. I'm thinking 2" of snow in the Jonesboro area at this point. Higher amounts near Poplar Bluff and lower amounts near Wynne. Most of it will fall in the nighttime hours.

Second, we have some very cold air in place and colder air moving in behind the snowfall. Very cold air makes the forecast easier, because we know it will be all snow. No questions there. But, the cold air is going to be brutal this weekend. The GFS model in BUFKIT above (time-stamp from right to left) shows lows in the single digits. However, with snow on the ground, the temperatures are likely to be even colder. Possibly below 0°.

Lastly, we have another system coming in next Tuesday that needs to be watched closely. With warm air moving over the cold air in place, we may have an "overrunning" effect that produces freezing rain. I know that is the last thing that this area wants to hear about, BUT it will not be a "crippling" storm like last year... even if it plays out like the GFS is showing. It's still WAY too early to worry about that system right now. Just stay tuned.

Stay warm!

Ryan

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