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I labeled the couplet in the above image, but in the below image you can see it a little better. At this point, the tornado may have lifted. I can't find the Public Information Statement from the NWS.

There was a lot of lightning and a lot of thunder! There was heavy rain. There was even a nice batch of mammatus clouds that went over my head, but in the end... zero severe weather reports in Region 8's viewing area. There were some reports in other parts of the state, but none in NE Arkansas or SE Missouri. (Hail 1" or greater or 58+mph winds)

I got to chase today and while I did not see any severe storms, I had some great moments. Since I'm stuck in the studio most of the time, it was nice to see lighting... hear thunder.. see shelf clouds... feel 40 mph gust fronts... and see some awesome mammatus clouds. It was nice.

Now... we have a break all week, BUT next weekend needs to be watched!

Ryan

Here's the Midday Meso Analysis still showing 60+ degree weather south of us and the higher dewpoints well south of us... Until these numbers rise, our severe threat will stay low. The Low is in northern Oklahoma right now and the low level push of moisture and warmth (the warm sector) should move in later. I'm still not sold on widespread severe weather, but we'll need to watch the warm sector and watch what happens west of us. The SPC has put out a Mesoscale Discussion for NW Arkansas. It can be found by clicking here.

Still watching... but it's lunch time!
Ryan

As I posted in the last update, the SPC has place Region 8 in a "Slight" risk zone for late today. Looking at the 500mb map, we have a decent low moving in from the west and some decent winds aloft. There are many signs pointing to some severe storms, but still some limiting factors. In particular, low level moisture. Dewpoints are very low and I'm not sold on them rising fast enough to support severe weather. Regardless of strength, a line of storms will come in this evening.

Looking at the NAM in BUFKIT, the timeline goes from right to left. In most locations, this should come in after dark with the exception of the western counties of Region 8. I have the Wood Ford StormTRACKER ready to go out and will likely be out in it when Meteorologist Justin Logan goes on air at 6:00.

Follow the Twitter feed for more...

Ryan

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Region 8 in a slight risk for storms. Don't get too worried yet folks... This system is still lacking some key ingredients for severe weather. We'll have thunderstorms, but I'm not completely sold on them being severe. It's "marginal"... Stay tuned.

Ryan

While the hail was not large enough to be considered "severe", it was enough to cause some concern in Jonesboro shortly before 2:00. You can see on StormTRACK Doppler 8 that there was a decent little hail core in the storm. In this 3D aspect, you can see that the storm was only about 30-35K feet high, but the freezing level above the ground was pretty low with the upper-level low moving overhead.

The picture below was taken at Fuji Steakhouse in Jonesboro by David Williams. You can see the pea-sized hail accumulating on the windshield wipers.

There's a lot to digest on the map that I scribbled on... This was snapped at 10:00 AM as seen on the timestamp. We had a good round of storms this morning and now we are getting a break. The sun has started to shine in some spots. That may seem nice, but it may enhance the storms coming in from the West.

With that said, I'm still not sold on severe storms. The deeper moisture is still East of us and they should have more time to become unstable. If this changes, I will update on my Twitter feed on the right side of the page.

Ryan

We're tracking two "Lows" over the next 7 days. At this time, neither appear too threatening now. The first is positioned just to our west this morning and will provide rain and thunderstorms today. While we may hear thunder and a storm or two may be strong, I believe the "severe" storms stay south of us. StormCAST indicated 1-2" of rain for most of Region 8.

The next Low is seen in the Pacific Ocean off of the coast of Oregon on water vapor imagery. This Low is slated to come in here Saturday night and looks to zipby fairly fast. Timing and the position of the low may prevent severe storms again. Let's hope so.

One last note, 80s are possible next week!

Take care,
Ryan

I was not initially concerned with the threat of severe weather on Thursday, but the NAM computer model is trying to show some significant instability. There are still some limiting factors, but it needs to be watched. At the time the SPC has not highlighted our area in a risk zone.... I bet that changes.

Ryan

The forecast is still right on track with the 700mb low tracking south of us. (That's the big bullseye on the map. The "white" is 700mb Relative Humidity) In the extreme NW part of Arkansas, they saw nearly a FOOT of snow! The "bowling ball" is rolling south of us and the warmer air  is wrapping around it. That is allowing us to be in the 50s this morning while Jackson, MS is in the the 30s! See map below:

Wow! We were 70° at my house today and on the other side of the state, there is 3" of snow on the ground. THAT is a dynamic storm! If you want to see some pictures from the other side of the state, check the blogs of Todd Yakoubian at KATV and the NW AR wx blogs. They are linked on the right side of my blog.

The upper-low is strengthening at this hour. You can see the center of the upper-low to our west and it is moving East. I expect more snow to fall in parts of the state and some parts of the Midsouth could see some flakes mixed in... It's going to be a wait and see situation, but I'm still not expecting any snow problems here. It's going to be rainy, windy, and much colder... but, if any snow mixes in, it will not add up to anything.

Once again, the latest temperatures, radar, and satellites shots are on the right side of my page. That's new. Do you like?

Ryan

I'm still thinking we're safe in Region 8, but parts of Arkansas will likely get some snow. The 00Z GFS tonight is right in line with what I have been chatting about for a few days. Under the cold core of the low, there is going to be a good snowfall. Where that sets up is the big question mark. If you notice, the GFS paints a nice glob of snow from Little Rock westward. (There could be some snow at the horse track this weekend!!!) It's going to be so fun to watch it evolve.

I just hope we don't get burned. This is a tricky forecast and you can clearly see how close we are to accumulating snow! I'm sticking with my cold, rain forecast... with just a few flakes mixed in Sunday.

Do I ever sleep?
Ryan

It's going to be fun to track the storm moving in this weekend. It looks to give parts of Oklahoma some bigtime snowfall. You can track the storm too by clicking the images on the right side of my blog. I've added Sat/Rad, Temperatures, Winds, and even the latest watches and warnings! All straight from the Region 8 Storm Center.

Click the above image for the 00Z NAM snow estimates.

Ryan

There are a lot of signs pointing to an all rain event and it probably will be all rain in Region 8, BUT let's not let our guard down. This post is intended to point out that there is a chance to see some flakes somewhere in the state on Sunday. The ground is warm, so it would just be cosmetic. First off, we have lowered the temperatures due to the track of the low and spread the rain chances through Sunday. Now... what about snow? Look out for the bowling ball!!

The final report from last week's tornadoes has been released. Let's take a look at the tornadoes one by one. First, the tornado in Saline county was an EF1. 18 homes had minor damage, 2 homes had major damage, and 2 homes were totally destroyed.  Amazingly, NO INJURIES! Here's a look from StormTRACK Doppler 8 as we tracked it getting closer to Region 8:

 The velocity data (winds) strongly indicated a tornado as seen in the first image with StormTRACK Doppler 8's Velocity Scope. The second image shows the classic "hook" on the storm. Click the image to enlarge.

The second tornado was the Cleburne County tornado. It was deadly. It was an EF2. It killed 1 and injured 4. Two homes were destroyed, and 8 others damaged. Here's a screen grab of our coverage showing the radar image at that time:


The third tornado was in White County. It was an EF1 near Letona and Center Hill. Once again, radar looked very impressive and we were tracking this one closely due to the data we were seeing. We were also tracking this storm in the Wood Ford StormTRACKER before it got too dark. You can clearly see the rotation on StormTRACK Doppler 8:

The fourth tornado was also in White County near Steprock and was spawn from the same storm. We had Region 8 Weather Watcher, Robert Rowland on LIVE when this one was moving near Steprock, AR. Here's a screen capture of StormTRACK Doppler 8 while we were talking to Robert:

The fifth tornado was in Independence County near Rosie. Once again, radar gave us a great advantage and the people of Rosie had lots of time to take cover! As you can see, they at least had over 15 minutes:

And finally, there was one tornado in Missouri. The bad news is that there was NOT a warning. We just happened to be on air, but could not see the threat on radar. Many parts of Region 8 are too far from Doppler Radar sites, and some tornadoes can go undetected. It's not the fault of anyone, that's just the reality... especially at night. Hopefully more radars are added in the future. The tornado was rated an EF1 and there was one minor injury. Big thanks to Ryan Difani for correcting me on the time of the tornado. Here's a screen grab of that storm during our coverage when we cut in during Jimmy Kimmel:

Severe weather season kicked in last Wednesday and we all need to be prepared for the rest of the season. We learned a couple of things on Wednesday. First, I learned that we need as many eyes on the storm as possible. That's why we're so blessed to have great storm spotters. Robert Rowland did an amazing job Wednesday. He did not panic anyone. He did not scream and yell. He observed and passed along the information without hyping it up. Perfect. Second, I learned that we have so much info coming in now! Between Twitter, the NWS Chat, and The Loop. Information is instant! This will save lives!

Review your plans over the next few days and get ready. We'll have more storms before you know it!

Ryan

When forecasting severe weather, I "kind of" have a checklist I go through. First, I simply check the thoughts of the SPC (Storm Prediction Center). They are some smart folks and worthy to listen to for severe wx. Are we in a risk according to them? Yes. Are we in a slight, moderate, or high risk? Yes, slight. Second, I start digging into the data to see if I agree with them. Here's their convective (thunderstorm) outlook for tomorrow:

Today, I'm looking at tomorrow afternoon and evening for severe wx. I'm wanting to look at the low-level moisture, upper-level flow, mid-level flow, instabilty, and lift. After going through my checklist, I believe we will see some severe weather tomorrow afternoon and/or evening. Let me show you why. First, the overview of the 6Z GFS:


If you click on the image, you'll see it shows dewpoints near 60°. I like to see 55°+ to support severe storms (although severe wx can occur with lower DPs). You'll see indictions of "lift" which supports the storms to grow or "bubble up" as my boys say. You'll also see the spike in CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. This is the energy for the storms. So, one by one, I'm checking off my list... Let's look at the winds now. First, let's check the 850mb winds:


My threshold (or flag) to look for here are winds 35kts or greater. Long line=10 kts, short line= 5kts, and a "triangle"=50 kts. As you can see, the GFS is showing 35 kts at about 5,000 feet tomorrow. Check. Now let's go UP in the atmosphere to 500 mb:

On this map, I'm looking for winds to be "spreading out" or diffluent. Notice how the lines fan out or seperate. That's the air spreading out, creating somewhat of a void for rising air and thunderstorms. Once again, signs of convection/thunderstorms.

There are a few more things I look at, but I don't want to bore you to death... just be prepared. We'll be in constant contact with the NWS for warnings and information and in contact with area storm spotters. Look at my Twitter updates on the right side of the page for instant updates.

While we have several signs pointing to severe weather, it's still not certain. I've seen all signs point to severe weather and nothing happens, but we need to be on guard. Our last decent round of severe weather (tornadoes/hail/winds) was in July.

Be weather aware!
Ryan

Information is still coming in, but a 3.7 Earthquake hit SE Missouri at 1:37 PM. It's not a big Earthquake and likely did not cause much damage, but an Earthquake on the New Madrid fault nonetheless. The above graph is the Helicorder display I pulled from the Portageville, MO site. You can see when the shaking occurred. For more information on this Earthquake, check the USGS site by clicking here.

Now... I'm going to go check the rates on my Earthquake insurance. :)

Ryan