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Early in the week, we had a nice dip in the dewpoints which made it feel much more refreshing. It did not last long and we had dewpoints right back into the 70s within 48 hours. Well, it appears we are going to see another break from the mugginess this week.

The above graph shows several data sources regarding the dewpoints through next weekend (click to enlarge). The bright green line is the 70° threshold and the dark green line is the 60° dewpoint threshold. This trend downward would have the dewpoints into the 50s at times this week!

Let me put this into plain English. When the dewpoints are in the 50s, a 90 degree temperature feels like 90° and not 105°. Even though the temperatures will be warm, the air will be drier and more refreshing.

Also, when the dewpoints are lower (drier air) we tend to see cooler overnight low temperatures. Therefore, it will feel pretty good when the kids head out to school in the morning!

Ryan

We launched our new graphics tonight and everything went... well, smooth on air. There were a couple of hiccups behind the scenes, but nothing too bad. The above clip is an example from tonight's 10:00 news

For the past several weeks, we have been tackling this upgrade to our weather computers. Lots of extra hours, a trip to Birmingham, and lots of time away from family. Now... it's back to my normal routine and I get to have fun with the new graphics!

Until today, I used the same graphics package for 9 years. I had those old graphics from my first time at KAIT... then I had them at WSFA... and then I returned to KAIT and have had them for almost 5 years more. For most of my career, I have use the blue backgrounds that we retired on our Midday show.

Needless to say, it feels a little weird when I'm giving the forecast on the new graphics! It's like having new shoes. You LOVE the new shoes, they look good, but they feel a little funny at first. And honestly, people step on them a little too... (inside joke)

Anywho, I hope the viewers enjoy them. During this interim, the graphics on the right side of my blog will not be updating. The new graphics should be there by Monday.

Lastly... we've added some new cities to the map too! Data for Hardy, Corning, and Newport were added!

Take care,
Ryan

PS-- Big thanks to both Matts, Ray, and Keith!

Take care,
Ryan

There are some signs that we will see a pattern change next week. So, what does that mean? Well, currently we have a big "ridge" or dome of high pressure on Region 8. The below map is the 500mb level map or the map that shows some upper-level features. This time of the year, when you have a circle with a "594" on it, right on top of you... you are going to be a little hot and the jetstream is going to be north of you:

Now, next week, that "594" high moves west and the jetstream dips into Region 8! This is good! This is what we call a "trough". It's seen as the "u-shaped" dip in the jetstream. This usually leads to a push of less humid air and some rain should be on the leading edge of this trough. Here's the map:


If this happens, dewpoints may drop into the 50s. Dewpoints in the 50s will be spectacularly awesome! (Not sure that is a word, but stick with me...)

Remember, this is just some model guidance. We're not biting down on this just yet... Another thing to note in the above map is the tropical system coming into Alabama. That will need to be watched too.

Always tracking!
Ryan

If you have not heard about Compassion International, you should look it up. Twice over the past few years, We've had musicians at Church come to talk about the work of this organization. I'm overwhelmed how great they are...simply meeting the needs of poor children around the world. If you are a Christian, it is one of the most understandable things in the Bible. Some things in the Bible can be a little obscure, but this command from God is very simple.

In this business, we get asked to help with numerous charities. Years ago, I would help with anything, if anyone asked. Now that I have kid's, and my time is a little more fragmented, I've started picking and choosing a little more. Let's face it, I can't be everywhere at once.

Recently, I was almost tricked/forced/bamboozled into helping with a charity event. I'm not big on "gimmicks" to get people involved. Let a person help or not help based on their convictions. After investigating, I realized this charity had a very low charity rating.

I now check every organization that I give money or time to. Usually I use Charity Navigator, but I also read other sites/tweets/etc

Compassion International has the highest rating on Charity Navigator. They are solid as a rock. Because of this, you will soon see a permanent link on this blog to their site. I've never felt more excited about a charity organization.

Our new kid is Migual from Ecuador. My boys are excited to be able to write to him and vice versa. I think it would be really cool if they all got to meet one day, too. We'll see.

So, I want to hear from you guys. Name some other GREAT charities that have touched your lives. Please comment in the comments section. Maybe you want to comment on Compassion International too.

Ryan

I'm working on a project for Raycom Media and ran across video of our station in Hawaii. (Yes, our company owns a station in Hawaii!) Their main weather guy topped all of my liveshots in 45 seconds.... Standing on the beaches of Hawaii, giving the weather forecast, watching the monster waves, with surfers in the background! This clip is from 2 days ago.

I've always heard that it is expensive to live in Hawaii, but I think I can live in a shack to be in that scenery. I plan to be here in Region 8 until I retire, but if they ever ask me to transfer to Hawaii... I may be packing! Wouldn't you?


Ryan

I know this is hard to believe, but NE Arkansas and SE Missouri caught a break from the EXTREME heat so far. As I type this at 3:40 PM on Monday, it is 95° in Jonesboro and 104° in Searcy. Clearly, Jonesboro has something different going on! In the above graph, it shows the observed temperatures in Jonesboro (dots) and the various guidance numbers we can look at while forecasting. The actual temperature is lower than the MOS numbers or the mean output of a couple of models. It's also lower than the NWS forecast. Notice, all of the numbers shoot up tomorrow and despite the cooler than expected numbers today, I still feel we will have widespread 100s. Let me explain why...
The above graph shows the winds in Jonesboro. Notice that the winds have been coming from a 045 to 135 heading. That's in degrees from north... so the wind has been FROM the NE to East to Southeast today. THAT has kept Region 8 from hitting 100° today. It's a slightly cooler airflow that will end tonight and tomorrow. Notice how the graph shows ALL models with a southerly wind tomorrow as the boundary moves away. With the southerly wind tomorrow, I fully expect us to top 100° and we have a forecast high of 102°.

This ridge will break down a little on Thursday and Friday to provide some rain chances, but it builds back in by the first of next week! Take it easy!

Ryan