ryansmorningblog-Bay-Net

The above image is the European model showing the temperatures at 850mb or roughly 5,000 feet above. This map helps us forecast high temperatures. It's good to use this map because you can see an overall cooling trend without the dips between day and night. The above image is for tomorrow (Wednesday) and notice the warm colors (yellows) over Region 8. This makes sense as we are expecting warm, but seasonal weather. Let's fast forward to Monday...
The cool air by Monday has already overspread the area. The above map would indicate lows in the 42-46 range and highs in the 63-68 range. Click the images to enlarge and you can clearly see the pool of cooler air moving in...

The cooler air should start to move in on Saturday and will really be over us on Sunday & Monday. This also indicates a brisk game Saturday evening as ASU and Louisville battle at Red Wolf Stadium! WooHoo!

Enjoy the weather!
Ryan

We have a Northwest Flow across Region 8. Do you like it? :) Some of you may be asking, what is a Northwest flow? Well, the above map is the 500mb map for Saturday evening according to the midday run of the GFS model. It's not "too" far off from what we have now.

A Northwest flow is when the upper-level flow is coming from the Northwest (simple enough). This keeps low level moisture away, advects cooler air into the area, and could give us a breezy NW wind. Sound familiar?

In the above map, you can follow the flow by looking at the lines of equal thickness. The wind will flow along those lines. I drew arrows on the map to illustrate. (Click to enlarge.) This map shows what the upper-flow may be following a reinforcing cold front on Friday morning.

Here's my point. We are in a dry, comfortable, NW Flow and it looks like it may stick around through the weekend!

Enjoy it!
Ryan

I don't have a lot of time to blog because I'm heading out to run some errands and to hopefully find a car. BUT, the long range models hint at some upper 30s for lows! We'll see how that unfolds, but interesting to note on this cool morning.

In other news... There still may be a tropical system in the Gulf, but Matthew did not morph with another tropical wave like I thought. If this forms, it will have a new name.

Anywho, enjoy the great weather. See you at 5,6, and 10.

Ryan

There's a lot of chatter about the Gulf of Mexico in the weather world today. Models continue to show the threat of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in one week. The above image is from the 6Z GFS. I'm sure if you click the image to enlarge, you will clearly see the hurricane. This would be Matthew and it may be a FAST mover once it comes into the Gulf. See next image...
The GFS has this storm crossing over Florida, into the Atlantic over open water in 24 hours! Now, THIS IS JUST A MODEL and I'm pretty sure this will change a few times. There are SOO many things that will influence Matthew that a forecast this far out is extremely tough. In fact, look at the image below. Each line is a different solution for this storm. Get my point?
So, this will continue to be a system we need to watch. Some of you are asking why we track a system like Matthew in Region 8. First off, remember Ike? Ike brought 70 mph winds to Region 8! In addition, even a system on the East Coast will impact us here. The look the difference in pressure in the image below. The closer the lines are, the windier it will be here AND the winds will be drawn from the north inidicating some comfortable air. That would be nice...
Once again, this is SEVERAL days out. We'll keep you posted!

Have a great day! I'm off work to go see Seinfeld LIVE! WooHoo! J-Lo will have your forecast tonight.

Ryan

There is a disturbance in the Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center has given a "60% Chance" of forming into a named storm. Assuming it forms and it is the next one in line, it would be "Matthew". The above image shows the tracks of SEVERAL models (click to enlarge). As you can see, it's virtually a dart throw at this point. With that said, I see many signs that the residents in the Gulf of Mexico need to watch this! Here in Region 8, we should also watch this storm...
The above image is zoomed in over the Southeast. Notice how many models take it into LA, MS, and even AR. If that happened, we would see some rain from it.

This is still SEVERAL days out, but we'll watch it!

Ryan

It appears that we are still on track for a cool down. The latest data still tracks an upper-level low out of Canada into Region 8 early next week. The above image is the latest GFS model and it has the low right on top of us on Monday and Tuesday. Notice the blue on the map? That's the cooler air overspreading the region.
The above image is what is going on now, more or less. It's the European model depicting this evening. I made this really simple. The orange-yellowish area is the warm air that we were feeling today. We had highs in the 90s once again. This will end soon as you can see...
This last image is the European model's solution to Tuesday evening as the low is moving off to the NE. Notice the blue over us in Region 8, indicating cooler air! I'm not sure about you, but I want more blue and less orange! #Plain&Simple

Stay tuned!
Ryan

There have been some indications of a cool-down for next week, but the forecast will be a little tricky. It would be nice if all of the data matched up, but they doesn't. The forecast really hinges on the track of an upper-level low. The above image is the "Euro" model at 500 mb depicting the upper-low in Eastern Kentucky (click to enlarge). Yesterday, the Euro had the low more over Region 8, so it will probably waffle a little over the next few days. Here's another model...
As you can see, this model has the low much farther west. It's the GFS model. The closer we are to this low, the cooler it will be... for two reason. First off, it draws in a cool pool of air. Second, it provides cloud cover. Some models are showing highs near 80 and some show highs only in the 60s.

At this point, we have lowered the highs in the 7 Day Forecast on Monday and Tuesday into the mid 70s. We'll have to wait to see just where this low sets up, if it sets up at all.

Stay tuned,
Ryan

Most of the rain has moved out and many areas were left with a good dose of rainfall! The above image is an estimate of the rain that fell as the storms rumbled through last night. As you can see, they were falling apart as they moved through, so from Mississippi County to Cross County, there was less rainfall. As the storms were decaying, they "collapsed" and the wind kicked up a little. I've had reports of pool chairs and lawn chairs blown around. Even a tree blown over in the Ozarks.

Despite a little wind, the National Weather Service made a good call on NOT issuing a warning. We have GOT to lower the "False Alarm Rate" so that we are not crying wolf. For a storm to be severe, the winds have got to be at 58 mph or above or have hail at 1" in diameter or above. I have seen no eveidence of either so far this morning. The highest wind gusts recorded was Hardy at 42 mph, Walnut Ridge at 48 mph, and Jonesboro at 46. Close, but no cigar. (What's that saying really mean?)

As far as rain goes, here are some reports:

Walnut Ridge: 0.57"
Jonesboro: 0.28"
Blytheville: 0.12"

Last night, I was concerned that we we were getting a lot more rain than we had in the forecast, but as you can, most locations were under 1"... if not 0.50". I'm still happy with the forecast.

Have a great day,
Ryan

This is what it looked like when the storms first hit Hardy. I'm so glad that we have cameras and weather stations across Region 8! While the storms were packing a little bit of a punch, the peak wind gust was 33 mph. That's well below the severe criteria of 58 mph. If you ever want to look at the camera or data from Hardy in Sharp County, click here:

http://www.kait8.com/global/Story.asp?S=8483047

Have a great night,
Ryan

I'm up late tonight watching the storms move in from the NW. There have been some reports of trees blown down near Springfield. Here are the latest reports that just came in on our internal weather chat server:

(11:38:35 PM) nwsbot: SGF: Nixa [Christian Co, MO] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 11:00 PM CDT -- multiple trees down twelve inches or greater in diameter

(11:40:57 PM) nwsbot: SGF: Marionville [Lawrence Co, MO] broadcast media reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:35 PM CDT -- trees down on fiske street
 
(11:50:20 PM) nwsbot: SGF: Highlandville [Christian Co, MO] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 11:00 PM CDT -- tree down
 
(11:52:35 PM) nwsbot: SGF: Greenfield [Dade Co, MO] law enforcement reports TSTM WND GST of E60 MPH at 10:00 PM CDT --
 
As you can see, we do need to watch these storms, BUT I really believe they will weaken as they move into Region 8. Due to the history of the storms, we will probably see a warning in Howell County... but I doubt we will hear of any damage.
 
We'll continue to watch the storms through the night, just in case!
 
Ryan

With Tornado Watches to our west, a lot of folks are wondering if we will see any tornadoes in Region 8 tonight. The short answer is NO. I think severe weather and especially tornadoes are highly unlikely. The main reason is that the greatest "spin" in the atmosphere is in Oklahoma...and some in SW Arkansas. We are too stable with not enough shear in NE Arkansas to support tornadoes. That could change tomorrow, but I doubt it... It appears the greatest threat is going to go up and around us.

Enjoy the rain though! Crack a window and listen to it fall tonight!

Ryan

Tomorrow (Actually today now) kicks off Football Friday Night and typically it is hot and sweaty! This time, it's going to be very nice and comfortable! We have a cold front moving through right now that will really bring some refreshing air to Region 8. I talk about it over and over again, but the dewpoint is what will make it feel so good!

Look at the above graph. As I type this, the dewpoints are in the 60s, close to 70. Look at the BIG dip tomorrow! Look at the dewpoints in the 40s! Come back to this blog and tell me in the comments section how much better the dewpoints in the 40s feel versus the 60s and 70s!

I've said it a million times, but if you want to know the comfort index in the summer, look at the dewpoint!

So, how are you going to enjoy the AWESOME Labor Day Weekend? Comment.

Ryan