ryansmorningblog-Bay-Net

I'm posting this as a test. This is my first post using my phone. As you can see, the cold air is plowing through the country. We're expecting lows in the 20s tonight and the skies will continue to clear out.

Enjoy!
Ryan

There is some chatter in the weather world about the chance of snow for next week. First, let's remember that we are talking about the forecast for 8 days out! That can be tricky, at best. BUT, the Euro model has consistently shown the possibility! The below map of the European Model was created from Accuweather Pro and shows precipitation (green) and it shows the rain/snow line (blue line) south of us.

IF this happened, we would have a decent snowfall on Tuesday, December 7th. That would be pretty cool, considering the Paragould Christmas parade is that night. :) And fellow Nashvillians that read the blog, you would be in line for snow, too.

BUT WAIT! This is not guaranteed! Another long range model we use is the GFS. IT shows cold air, but no precipitation. This model image is from NCEP.

Here's the deal. Like "Dumb and Dumber"... I'm saying there's a chance. I'm just not getting too excited 8 days out.

Stay tuned. I'll be posting through the week about this setup. Also... stay tuned for possible severe weather later today... especially in Southern Areas.

Ryan

This may have been my first White Thanksgiving! We went to Fort Leonard Wood, MO to see my brother and sister-in-law. He's stationed there in the Army, which is a lot closer than previous years. They use to be in the Seattle-Tacoma area! On our way there, we steadily watched the temperature go from 69 degrees in Paragould... to 40s in Hardy... to 30s in West Plains... to FREEZING near Houston, MO. By the time we made it to their house, it was sleeting and snowing and the trees were covered with ice! Once it moved out, the sunset was awesome. It was just a dusting, but it was a White Thanksgiving!
While there, we got to see some of the "new" soldiers march in Cadence. It was pretty cool for those of us not in the military world. Being a higher rank guy, I think he had them put on a little show for us...lol.

Hopefully, you guys had a great Thanksgiving as well. We had some GREAT food and a great time! Now, let's talk about some rain tomorrow.
The NAM model shows a wet period for tomorrow (click to enlarge). In fact, it shows the highest rain totals of over 1.5" of rain through tomorrow night. That will help fill the duck fields a little more! Beyond this system, the temperatures may drop into the 20s for Wednesday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

Have a great Sunday everyone! We're heading to Church!

Ryan

We've been chatting it up in the Storm Center, on Twitter with fellow weather friends, and on blogs about the chance of snow or wintry mix later this week. I have not mentioned it much on air because it is too far out and too questionable, but let's chat about it for a moment. SEVERAL questions to answer:

• Will the cold air arrive before the moisture leaves?
• If so, how deep will the cold air be?
• Based on that, could it be sleet, snow, or freezing rain?
• Or, Just rain?

The above image is the BUFKIT program showing the 00Z run of the NAM (or the evening data from the North American Mesoscale model). The time oddly goes from right to left. You see tonight's rain by the green bars, Wednesday's rain in the middle, and Thanksgiving's rain on the left. Also, look at the temperature line in red. Notice how it SHARPLY drops on Thursday. THAT is the cold front. If it comes in late, as it is shown above... the highs will be warmer. If it comes in earlier, the highs will be colder. Regardless, the temperatures are going to drop. This model does shows us briefly switching to sleet/snow. It's not much, but enough to catch some late-nighters off guard.

So... here it is on the map. If you click the image to enlarge, it does show a few flakes over Region 8. This would not add up to anything and would not cause any problems whatsoever, but look at the I44 corridor! Now, if THAT materialized, it would cause some issues for those people! I have family there... should be interesting!

Here's the bottom line. I'm not expecting much to happen in our viewing area. We may see some form of wintry mix on the tail end of the system, but I think most of the moisture will be gone by the time the cold air arrives.

We'll be watching it though!!!
Ryan

Occasionally I get emails like the one I got this morning:


We in the hills are sure glad that there wasn't any rain for the high school
football games and ASU's Saturday game will be dry.  We sure are glad that
you get so giddy that the games will be dry.  We sure are glad even though
we are dying up here, that all is well and dry for the football fans.
(Name Removed)



Here's the deal folks; my personal preferences for outdoor events have zero impact on the weather. I can't create rain by going on air and speaking about how much I love rain in the hills. If I could, I would be a rich man. We knew the rain would come through this morning and would not last long. If the rain is going to come through and be gone by kickoff, I'm going to mention that. In fact, I'm going to the game and I'm quite happy that I will not be sitting in the rain.


Oh well, I got a good chuckle out of it AND a morning blog post. Have a GREAT day...enjoy the dry afternoon.

Ryan

PS-I know they were speaking about the lack of Apathy, but keep in mind... concrete companies, construction companies, and home builders have loved the drought.

Since it was brought up in the comments section, let's talk about the timing of the rainfall on Saturday. I've been mentioning that I believe the rain will be east of us by the time ASU and WKU kickoff, but I have not mentioned the Veteran's Day Parade. Well, to be transparent... there is a better chance of rain during the parade than the football game. I don't want to mention that threat two days out, because I don't want people to cancel their plans 48 hours out. Things can change!

The above image is our "in-house" computer model showing what radar "may" look like on Saturday morning at 10AM. Notice, the threat of rain does exist for the Veteran's Day Parade. With that said, this is a model. It can be off either direction by an hour or two. We'll be watching it closely.

Don't cancel your plans just yet... Just check radar on Saturday morning. The line should be light and will not last long. Also... the rain chances for next week appear to be dropping with every piece of data that comes in!

Ryan

We are waiting on some changes over the next few days. The first disturbance is moving through the SW right now. You can see it in the above image. The brighter colors are faster winds aloft. This is the disturbance that will move through Friday night into Saturday. This next image is for Saturday morning...
Notice that the disturbance is not quite as impressive as it moves overhead. A cold front will be sweeping through and bringing colder air, too. After highs in the 70s, highs will go down into the 50s. Lows will be in the 30s! Another disturbance appears wetter on Sunday night into Monday...
The above image is Monday morning. Notice the disturbed weather overhead. We may get a 1" rainfall out of that system! That would be nice!

We'll watch it,
Ryan

I saw this pic via a Tweet from @memphisweather1 this morning and found it to be very cool! He was asking his blog readers to find Memphis from this picture taken on the International Space Station. Of course, I took the challenge. I then tried to find Jonesboro, Little Rock, etc. Sorry Lafe... we can't see your city lights from the International Space Station! As I was rotating the laptop around and around... I soon realized I needed to rotate the image around to make it easier on everyone! So... Can you find certain cites? Below is the rotated image:
Don't forget... you can click the image to enlarge. Props to Erik for finding this shot.

Take care... I'm off to speak at a Senior Adult Rally in Piggott. We're discussing Disasters and God.

Ryan

Some cold looks to be coming in by the end of the week. There's still some questions on how cold we will be, but it will be the coldest night for Football Friday Night of the season.The above image gives us an idea of where the troughs of low pressure are in the US and I've made the color table clearly show where the colder temperatures will be as we head into Friday. There are some slight variations between different models, but overall... we will be colder. (Click images to enlarge)
The above image is another model. Notice that the trough (U-shaped area) is a little farther East. This would indicate slightly warmer temperatures, but still bringing in another FREEZE by Saturday morning.

So... we'll be tracking the exact position of the trough and just how deep it will be over the next few days. Whether our highs are in the upper 40s or low 50s on Friday... One thing is for sure, It WILL be colder.

Take care,
Ryan

There is an upper-level low spinning in the Southern plains this evening and I bet you can point it out in parts of of Texas and Oklahoma. This low has been giving some showers and thunderstorms to parts of TX, OK, and even AR. As I type this, there is a severe thunderstorm watch for the southern parts of the state, but I'm confident that will stay outside of Region 8!
As you can see in the above image, this low will more than likely dive south into Texas and continue on into the Gulf of Mexico. Since this is being "shunned" southward and not heading in our direction, I firmly believe that our rain chances are very, very low. Most of the rain will be from I-40 and I-30 southward...
Here's how StormCAST sees it. StormCAST is our wx model that runs here at KAIT and tries to model the atmosphere on a 6 km resolution. It's a high resolution grid that helps to pinpoint exactly where it will rain and where it will not rain. NOTICE, it shows some good rain through the southern counties in Region 8 at 5PM but not as much in areas closer to Jonesboro. White, Woodruff, Cross, and St. Francis counties have the best chance of rain in Region 8 tomorrow because the Upper Level disturbance that I mentioned above will be tracking well south of us!

Coming soon, I'm talking about the BIG cool down later this week!

Ryan