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Radar has come a LONG way since the 60s. The above image is from NOAA and shows some tornadic storms from 1965. Since then, we now have color radar, Doppler capabilities, and many more products that help us track flooding, tornadoes, and severe storms.

All of us are familiar with the "reflectivity" product on radar. We use this product the most.
The above image is reflectivity or what we use to show where it is raining and how hard. This is the most popular radar product and for years has been very helpful. In recent times, the resolution has become MUCH better! That means it is more precise. Another radar product you see often during tornado coverage is "Velocity" data.
Velocity data shows us which direction the wind is moving and it's magnitude. Click image to enlarge. The green is the wind coming "toward" the radar site and the red is the wind going "away" from the radar site. Many times we show "Reflectivity" with the "Velocity" data in our scope. Now let's talk about some new products as of this month!

The NWS radar in Memphis has been upgraded to be a Dual Polarization radar! This is a project that is upgrading every NWS radar in the country by the end of 2013. Memphis is one of the first batch of radars to be upgraded. This is VERY good for us. Dual Pol radar not only sends out horizontal pulses, but vertical pulses. This helps to measure "WHAT" is falling from the sky and the size.

The new data will help determine precipitation types, rainfall rates, and hail detection. At KAIT, we have upgraded our radar display systems to have access to this data and to be able to show it to you on air! With that said, I'm not sure how often we will show it yet, but it is available. Here's what some of the data looks like using the same rain in the above images from last night.
The above image is "Differential Reflectivity" or "ZDR" and essentially can tell us the precipitation type and how large the raindrops are, and hail detection. I plan on making a radar legend for this product for typical values and what can be associated with those values. With StormTRACK Doppler 8, we can click the radar data to obtain the values and make some determination of what is falling from the sky.

The above image is "Correlation Coefficient": or CC data. I plan on using this to track ducks! LOL CC shows the behavior of of the pulses horizontally and vertically between each volume. Birds are not uniform and will change often and will be easily detected. Plain ole rain wills show up in shades of pink as seen above. If there was hail or snow with big snowflakes, it would react differently and you would see some shades of blues and greens, reds and oranges.
The above image here is Differential Phase or "KDP". I believe this is going to come in handy for Flash Flood events, but we need some real time events to see exactly how this will be used. It will show where the higher concentration of particles is located.

There's still a lot of studying to be done, but I'm excited about this new data we have to use at KAIT! To my knowledge, we may be the only television station with Dual Pol data for on-air use in Arkansas at this time. I'm still checking on that.

Have a great day!
Ryan

Back in 1983, there was BIG blast of cold air in Region 8! The above image is the climate log from KAIT that month. Click the image to enlarge and look at the coooold weather! While we are going into the 50s and 60s today, they were in the 40s and 30s and about to enter a streak of sub freezing temperatures! Some of the numbers to highlight in the image above are:

• December 19, 1983: High 15, Low: 8
• Christmas Eve, 1983: High: 6, Low: -1
• Christmas Day. 1983: High: 13, Low: -5 on Christmas morning!!!

Here are some more climate logs from December of 1983. Click on them and check them out. This next one is from Paragould:
And finally, here's one from Pocahontas. Brrrr, -8 is COLD:
I hope you enjoyed looking back at the VERY cold December of 1983! It's neat to look back at the old climate logs.

Have a great day!
Ryan

I can remember when I was a kid, I would want to sleep on the couch to stare at the lights! While I still love the tree, sleeping on the couch is not as comfortable anymore! The above picture is this year's tree, or at least one of them. My wife also has a tree at the back of the house that the kid's put ornaments on each year!

Let's go through some of my favorite ornaments! First, my Krispy Kreme donuts "Hot" sign. If you have ever lived near a Krispy Kreme bakery, you know the HOT sign well and know you must stop if you see it!
The next ornament is the pickle ornament. I'm not sure why it has become one of the favorites, but it has.
The next ornament was given to me by Lisa Patton at WKRN. It's a "Our First Christmas" ornament that was given to my wife and I when we were married. Of course, it will always be an important one.
This is our newest ornament and is great! That's a lot of reindeer! As Sarah mentioned in the Storm Center just now, we almost have enough to pull Santa's sleigh!

The next one was given to me by Weather Watcher, Jason Hampton. It's a beloved WKU football helmet!
And as many of you know, I'm a big Titans fan and we must have a Titans ornament...

I typically go to work with no tie one, but put one on right before the news.. I'm not a huge fan of ties. I like wearing suits and actually find them more comfortable than jeans, but ties are a little stuffy. Today, I go to put on my tie about 45 minutes before news time and the top button on my shirt is MISSING! I considered not wearing a tie on air, but I don't feel right doing that unless I have a blue shirt on. So, I go searching for a solutions. Back when Brandi Hodges worked at KAIT, she would take care of problems like this, but she left us for the library. So... I go searching for a sewing kit.

Craig, nope. Diana says maybe and searches her car... nope. Other employees in the newsroom.... nope, nope, and nope. So, I head to the other end of the building and stop by our Network Administrators's office. To my surprise, he has a sewing kit!!! Problem solved, right? Wrong... I'm not a seamstress!
I have 20 minutes to sew on a button, get dressed, tie a tie, mic up and be on the news. Somehow, some way... I got it done. I was a little worried all night that the button would pop off and my tie would look crazy, but it held together.

In the future, I'm going to have a sewing kit in the storm center, OR I'm going to buy one of these cool things:
Automatic Button Sewer- Click here

That would be a cool stocking stuffer! Anywho, I'm heading to bed soon. Tomorrow is my Friday!

Ryan

Nine years ago, my wife and I were sitting at the Jonesboro Christmas parade. It was COLD and we were walking the streets of downtown. My wife was 9 months pregnant and due at any moment. This would be the last day for us to go out alone without a babysitter for many years! After a day of errands and an evening at the Christmas Parade, we went home to sleep... a few hours later, she went into labor.

I was scared when I first became a father. I felt too young, too irresponsible, too broke, too weak, and too unprepared. I have come to realize that you are never 100% prepared and that you have to depend on God for guidance and preparation. I'm sure if you ask anyone if they felt prepared for their first kid and they would say no... I didn't feel prepared for #2 either... or #3 and #4. The road that my wife and I have taken is one that can only be supported by the strength of Jesus. It's been a blast, but not easy.

As I reflect on my oldest son's birthday, I can honestly say that I KNOW he is going to make me proud. In fact, he is already making me proud! He is a Christ-filled child. He makes straight A's. He's athletic. He's polite..... and he says yes sir and no mam! God has truly blessed us. He's not perfect and he can have his off days, but I am very proud to call him my son!

Happy Birthday Big Guy!
Ryan

While doing my normal routine of sitting at the bar, drinking my coffee, and catching up on the morning news I hear my youngest daughter say, "SNAKE"! I turn around and find this...

The joy of daughters.... It's a short blog, but just a reminder that kids are funny people. I decided today that I need to start recording their audio. Listening to what they say now in 10 years will be priceless.

By the way, the snake was a piece of bark.

Have a blessed day!
Ryan

I have thought this before, I realized for sure tonight that there are people out there that think the trailer we pull behind the StormTRACKER in parades and events is the same "Weather Deck" we occasionally do weather on during the newscasts. That makes me laugh!

The weather deck that is permanent at KAIT is a multi-level deck that is perched several feet above the ground. It's VERY nice and if I did not mention it already... is permanent! There is a large deck on top, which has a rain gauge and several weather instruments, stairs that go down to another part of the deck, and landscaping all around it. There's also a Christmas tree that we need to decorate!

At 5:00, I showed the leftover snow on the weather deck (which is seen above) and when we rode in the parade tonight, 4-5 people asked why there was no snow on the deck! So, as I walked into the studio tonight, I took this picture to prove it.

I hope this clears it up,
Ryan

Tomorrow is the start of December! It's the first day of Meteorological Winter, which simply means that us weather geeks count by months and Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar are winter. More importantly though, it is the happiest month of the year! Right? I don't think so...

It sure seems that we have a lot of angry people in the world. I'll admit that even I have been a little grumpy over the past 2 days. I blame it on being sick, but even if I were not sick, I could come up with another excuse.

On my way to work today, a lady in a white Lexus zoomed beside me in the fast lane and was slowed by someone driving slow in the left lane. I was going a little faster and she got into my lane and rode my bumper. Keep in mind, I'm in the slow lane going 5 mph over... so I'm not going to speed up for her. She's hitting the steering wheel, yanks it back and forth between lanes until she can squeeze through. I understood her frustration. I get mad at people who camp out in the fast lane, too. But I never get mad at the people in the slow lane going 5 over! Here's the kicker though... she turned 2 blocks later. What?

Fast-forward to tonight. We are airing the Arkansas Razorback game on KAIT and preempting The Middle and some other shows. People are MAD. Comments on Facebook, Twitter, emails, phonecalls, etc from people who either want to watch The Middle or just don't want Hog Basketball. Some people don't even know what would be on the channel if the Hog game was not on! They are just disgruntled ASU fans that think we are trying to convert them! Settle down everyone, anything you missed can be found tomorrow on www.kait8.com on our episode player. It's a TV show. Calm down. If you don't like Razorback basketball, I understand! I don't either. Take the time to turn off the TV and enjoy your family. It won't hurt our feelings. With that said, there are A LOT of Razorback fans watching the game and enjoying it tonight. More power to them.

As we enter into December, be happy. Stop getting so worked up over things. I have several more examples, but I'll pass for now.

Have a great week everyone!
Ryan

This is one of those awkward times when some people are making it sound like we are going to have a major tornado outbreak and I'm not even completely sold on severe weather. I think we will hear thunder, see some heavy rain in spots, and may even see a few severe thunderstorm warnings, BUT it does not appear to be an impending severe weather outbreak. Let's look at data. First, this is a program we use called BUFKIT to chew on the data and display it. This is the NAM model:

The above image shows a lot of stuff, because I put two windows in one. More or less, the green bars show when it is going to rain and how much and the box on the right shows some numbers that help us determine the severe weather threat. First, most of the rain will be after sunset and we should see between 0.50"-1.00" depending on isolated downpours. Second, let's look at some severe weather parameters. Click image to enlarge, if you wish. First, NAM shows CAPE (instability) peaking at around 400. That's enough to see some isolated storms, but not that impressive. Areas in OK and WESTERN AR may see this number go above 1000 at times over the next 36 hours and they have a higher severe weather threat. The EHI number is not concerning and the Lifted Index, which I have spoken about before... also, not impressive. It's at -1 according to NAM and should be lower for severe weather.... like -4 or lower. There are several other things to look at, but the overall trend is that this is not a severe weather outbreak. Storms: YES. Thunder: YES. Some Watches and Warnings: Probably So. Outbreak: Doubt it.
GFS model has pretty much come in line with the NAM as well. Most of the rain is after dark with limited instability.

I'll still be in the Storm Center as the storm system moves through and I'll be giving updates as needed. Follow me on Twitter and Facebook as well.

www.twitter.com/ryanvaughan <<<--- Best source
www.facebook.com/ryanvaughanweather

Prepare and stay informed, but don't alter your plans too much.
Ryan

I have been banned from showing any pics of the the new set, but it is built and the lighting experts are here this week to position the lights. The picture above was one of the only pictures that I got approved to show on the blog. It's "part" of the set being delivered before they built it. I also took a picture of a part of the storm center desk...
I'm sorry that I can't show more, but we want it to be a surprise. When we debut it, I'll give you some "behind the scene" shots as it was being built.

The designers of the new KAIT set have built sets in Los Angeles, Atlanta, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Nashville, and even Fox Sports! You are going to be impressed.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Stadium seating! In the above picture, you are sitting in the new audio booth of the new HD Control Room at KAIT! You are looking through some glass and the next row is where the Producers sit. In front of the producers would be where the Director sits during the newscast. Lots and lots of monitors, to monitor live feeds, other stations, storm chase feeds, live shots, and Judge Judy.;)
In the above picture, you can see one of our directors during Region 8 News at 10:00 last night. This is where all of the buttons are pushed to show you video of the day's news!

They are in the process of building the new set now and the new Storm Center is at least 5 times larger than the old storm center! Fun times at KAIT! I can't wait until you guys see it!

Stay tuned for more updates,
Ryan

For years, we have been in the Control Room in the picture above. It gets the job done, but it's not the best layout for these guys and gals. It's also not suited for an HD newscast. For those that don't know, the control room is the area where all of "buttons are pushed". When you see video, the guy in the far distance hits the button to make it roll. When you see someone's name on the bottom of the screen, someone in this room does it. When someone is talking into our earpiece about severe weather or breaking news, it comes from this room. Starting THIS weekend (before the new set is revealed), we will start using the NEW HIGH DEFINITION control room!
As you can see from this picture, they are still working on it and many more monitors will be added before they use it on Saturday. I'll give you more updates when it is completed. You may not tell a difference when we change control rooms, but it paves the way toward the HD conversion of Region 8 News!

Ryan

We have an empty shell now! In order for the new set to be built, we had to completely demolish, empty, and clean the old studio. In the above picture, you are looking at the future East Side Studio. This will house the set for interviews, reporter stand-ups, and is also the door that leads to the Weather Deck. As you can see, it is empty and the floors have been redone with a HIGHLY industrial paint. It's shiny too! Now to more pictures!
The above picture is still in the East Studio, looking the other direction. You can still see one walls of the old storm center. As soon as the new set is installed, those computers will move and that will just be a wall. If you look through the opening, that is the main studio that will house the future news desk and the awesome storm center! The floors were still a little sticky, so I could not go in there. Believe me, it's just an empty shell.
One downfall has been the smell! The paint needed for a studio floor has to be TOUGH. This means that we had to use some STRONG paint. When I say STRONG... everything about it is STRONG. The smell on Tuesday night was horrible.

We know there will be some uncomfortable moments, some challenges, and some smells that we will have to deal with over the next few weeks. With that said, the final product is going to be awesome and worth it!

More updates coming soon. In case you don't know, we are also getting a BRAND NEW control room. I'll blog about that next!

Ryan

Over the next few weeks, I'm going to blog about the HUGE transition that is taking place at KAIT! On Friday, we earnestly started the demolition on the news set at KAIT. Craig was having some fun after the 10:00 news! As you can see, we are excited at work! This set has been with us for awhile, with some changes here and there.  We have seen Tony Brooks, Dick Clay, Terry Wood, Mark Frankum, Daryl Hobby, Glen Marini, and many more great people deliver news, weather, and sports from this set. It has a deep history, but it's time for a dramatic change!
In the above picture, two legendary people at KAIT (Gerald Erickson and Ronnie Weston) are taking down the Region 8 Storm Center. We started this process earlier last week. Lots of tornado warnings have been covered in that room! From Terry Wood, Shane Carter, Ron Smiley, Mark Frankum, Chad Watson, etc... A lot of work has been done in that area! My first tornado warning from here, was my first day on air at KAIT! It was 10+ years ago for a Tornado Warning in Cross County. After the midday show on Friday, another part of the studio started to come down...
As you see, it has been a VERY busy area lately. The room you see above is now an empty shell. I'll show it in the next update.

I'll keep you posted on the process, but I'm not going to let too much out on what the final product looks like. I want to let you see that in gorgeous HD video in the coming weeks! In the meantime, we're on a temporary set!

Stay tuned!
Ryan

The above image is a 500mb map or what you may refer to as an "upper-level" map. If you click on the map to enlarge  you will see some shades of greens, yellows, and reds across Arkansas. This indicates a small "hiccup" in the atmosphere or "upper-level disturbance". This is what may spark off some showers and storms. This next map shows a simulation of what the radar might look like...
Notice, there is green on the map. While this model shows rain and so does our "in-house" computer model (StormCAST)... not all data supports this solution. This is when the gut feeling kicks in.... My gut feeling says we need to have the rain chances higher than 20% and if I wake up tomorrow morning with similar data, I will be increasing the rain chances fro Friday. Stay tuned!

Ryan

The above map was released by the SPC recently and it shows the number of tornadoes per state on average, per year, using the data from 1981-2010. At first, you would think that the most likely place to be hit by a tornado is Texas, but we have to remember that the data is skewed because of the size of Texas. This next map is a better representation.
The above map shows the Average Annual number of Tornadoes per 10K square miles, per state. As you look at THIS map, you have to ask where tornado alley exist. I think a person could argue that tornado alley is a little more South and East than people think.

We have had some very quiet weather for a few months in Region 8. Let's remember that we typically see severe storms and tornadoes in the fall as well. Let me encourage you to review your severe weather plans at work, school, and home!

Ryan

My wife and I lived in a house in the Turtle Creek Mall area. At the time, there was no mall... just a field. She had left for work and I was getting ready for the day. I worked at KAIT as the weekend meteorologist and reported during the week from time to time, so I was to be at work at 9:00. While brushing my teeth, I heard a little blurb on the TV about a plane hitting the WTC. My mom called and also told me about the report. I thought it was bad, but I also thought is was a small plane and that it was an accident. I continued to get ready for work.

 My college roommate called me and wanted to know what was going on. He was in traffic in Nashville and was hearing the reports on the radio. As I talked to him and sat on my couch watching GMA, I saw the second jet hit the 2nd Tower on LIVE TV. I was shocked! I saw the outline of the fuselage and knew it was a large jet. Because of the shadows, it looked solid black and I did not think it was a commercial airliner, but rather a military jet from another country. Honestly, I think I said a few explicit words as I told my close friend what I was seeing. It made no sense. It was something I had never seen or imagined. And it was something that was obviously deliberate. Within minutes, the text pagers that were issued by KAIT read "All staff report to KAIT NOW"...

At work, there was really not much to do in the morning. ABC News was handling most of the coverage and we watched.... We quickly found out some local impacts. The most shocking was the fact that one of OUR reporter's dad was in the WTC. Allison Martin's Dad was in one of the towers. As you can  imagine, the emotions ran high at KAIT until we heard he was OK. In addition to her dad, we found out that Adam Staples from Region 8 was in the building. We hear he is OK and get an interview from him. Unfortunately, we then hear about a young lady from Batesville that worked for the airlines. She had died and quickly we assembled a crew to go to Batesville. I was the photographer in that crew and we set out for Batesville for the day.

At home that night, I walked in and hugged my wife for a long time. We were young and had no kids. I vividly remember telling her that I don't trust the world and that I did not want to bring kids into this world. It seemed uncertain, violent, unsafe, and the future did not seem to have any light. We went out to the grocery to ease our minds and to buy ice cream. (Typical thing for a young couple). Most people were at home and the aisles were empty. The people that were there, had blank stares and we all looked at each other with the same uncertain and scared faces.

The next Sunday, my wife and I were still searching for a Church home. We went to Highland Drive Baptist and it was packed. We sat in folding chairs because so many people had come to church looking for answers.

The country was united! There were no Republicans or Democrats. There was no Tea Party. There was America and we were all Americans.

Today, we are torn apart again. The Churches are not running the numbers that they were in September of 2001. I'm not sure what else I can say about it, except that we have forgotten. America has forgotten what it was like to walk the aisles of a grocery store on the evening of 9/11/01. We have forgotten the peace we got from Christ on the Sunday after. We have forgotten that people are STILL dying today to fight the evil that rammed jets into our buildings! I'm just as guilty as everyone else...

Can't say much more.
Ryan

For weeks, we have been stuck in hot, humid and stagnate air! That has changed! In the above map, I have plotted the winds (colors), wind direction, and pressure. The reason it is colder is because we had a cold front push through, but the reason it is breezy is because of the pressure gradient between Tropical Depression Lee and the center of High Pressure NW of us. Click image to enlarge.

The green lines are lines of equal pressure. Like a topographic map, the closer the lines are together... the "steeper" the gradient is... and the windier it is.Can you see how close the lines are over Arkansas? The shades of blues also indicate the winds at 20-30 mph.

I'd venture to say that this is the most comfortable Labor Day we have had in a long time! Enjoy it!

I'm laboring on this Labor Day, but it is the greatest job on Earth... so no complaints. I'll see you at 5:00 and 6:00 from the weather deck!

Ryan

I'm tired of the blog always being about weather. I'm going back to the roots of this blog, which talked more about life. Here's a new past time for my boys and I, model cars. When I was a kid, I loved doing model cars. I can vividly remember that they were not constructed very well and I frequently left out the little parts that were hard to glue on. Therefore, my cars had no alternators, oil filters, side mirrors, etc. As I start this new adventure with the boys, we're going to try to be a little more meticulous.

Side note: As a kid, I would take a lighter, heat the plastic suspension, and lower cars. I was a pro at making a car have "three-wheel motion". Some of you will know what that is...
The most challenging part has been the painting. A few streaks, a few bubbles, blemish here and there, but I think we're getting the hang of it. I think the key is primer, which we failed to use a time or two. As I mentioned, I did not like the small parts that gave the cars detail as a kid, but adding those pieces really give it a nice touch. My oldest son is a little more "into" the model cars than the youngest and I've been teaching him the parts of a car as we construct them.
Yes... that's an oil filter on the Challenger we are constructing.

I think we will tackle a NASCAR next. If you have ever done a NASCAR model car, then you know that the painting and decals are a challenge. I'll keep you posted.

Ryan

The SE islands of the Bahamas are getting hit pretty good by Irene today. My wife and I met a meteorologist and his family in Nassau a couple of years ago. I'm going to try to call him today to see what it is like in Nassau, Bahamas today as they prepare for Irene. It should come very close to their city. I'm going to assume that he may be a little busy, but if I can get a phone interview... I'll air it on Region 8 News. It clearly looks like this is an East Coast storm now, but the overall weather pattern WILL be impacted and in an indirect way, it will affect us in Region 8. Take a look at the WRF model and what it does with Irene:
This shows a North Carolina landfall. This is bad for North Carolina and my cousin (an ER Doc) in Salisbury, Maryland. However, my Dad in West Palm Beach, FL and friends that are heading to Disney World are quite happy with the forecast path (I'm guessing).

With the counter-clockwise rotation of the hurricane, this will help draw down some drier and cooler air for us in the wake of the cold front. It may get a little breezy as well, since we will be between the strong ridge and the low (Irene) to the East. Here's a graph of the dewpoint to show the break from the Mugginess:
In summary... I am ready to lose this muggy air.

Ryan

I haven't blogged in awhile and I can blame that on two things. First, the weather gets pretty boring in the Summer. Second, my personal life has been really, really busy. I'm not willing to share details at this point, but our family adopted 2 little girls shortly after we returned from Alaska several weeks back. With 4 kids, I spend more time being Dad than the blogging weather guy! God has really blessed our family, but the transition takes up lots of time.

Let's talk weather though right now...

This first map is for next Thursday and this bowling ball in the Tropics could be a big news story by NEXT weekend! Click images to enlarge.

Models are still going back and forth between a FL hit or a North-Central GOM hit. GOM stands for Gulf of Mexico....Even each individual model varies from each run. For example, the data coming in this evening shows this storm coming into the GOM and heading back over FL and then hitting the East Coast! I think that's kind of what Charley did a few years back. Here's the map valid for next Saturday:
As I said though... the models have shifted some. The earlier run of the GFS showed a large hurricane in the center of the GOM next weekend. See map:
Regardless of which track it takes, it should be a big news story by next week. Stay tuned and I'l keep you posted. If the storm tracks west... we could get some rain and wind. If the naming goes as expected.... this sould be Irene.

We'll watch it!
Ryan