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I have not had much time to blog because we are remodeling our house and it is turned upside down! I wanted to drop a quick blog regarding the major storm moving through. I can promise wind and rain, but wintry precipitation is the questionable item. The above image is the probability of a quarter inch of ice from the HPC and you can see that a good part of Region 8 is in the risk zone.The blizzard is going to stay north, but I'm going to watch the temperatures closely through the day to see if some freezing rain slips in here. As of right now, I think some parts of Region 8 will get glazed with ice. Email reports to me at ryan@kait8.com or tweet me at @ryanvaughan Send pics too!

That is all for now. I'm sleepy!
Ryan

This is a "heavy" animation that takes a few seconds to load, but it is very cool. The sun had two explosions today at about the same time. One was caused by a magnetic filament erupting and the other was a solar flare. Regardless... they made for a cool animation from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.

Take care,
Ryan

I'm going to let these speak for themselves. Here are the statements and warnings from the National Weather Service 2 years ago as the ice storm was pounding Region 8. You can click to enlarge:

And after the storm passed, here is the Public Information Statement that shows how much ICE accumulated on the limbs and power lines! 2.00" of ICE on a power line is nuts! By the way, this is just the data from the NWS in Memphis which covers about half of Region 8. Big thanks to Phil Baker for pulling this up for me!
Enjoy the nice weather we have now! It may not be so nice next week!

Ryan

Let's compare the forecast to what we are seeing on the Satellite this morning. Click here to read the blog post about where the snow could fall (and how much) and then look at this morning's visible satellite:

Visible satellite is like being in space and taking a digital picture of the Earth. It can only be used in daylight and shows where clouds are, BUT it can also show us where snow is located. Click the above image to enlarge. You'll notice that the extreme eastern parts of Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel got some snow. It also appears that there is a  little sliver of snow around the Woodruff/Cross/St. Francis County area. Look close!

How do I know that is snow and not cloud cover? It does not move when you loop it AND you can see the tributaries into the Mississippi River in West Tennessee.

Overall, I think the forecast panned out well if you look at blog post linked above. I'm not getting too excited though. We'll bust a snow forecast soon. Haha

Ryan

The eastern parts of Region 8 will see rain through the day, but many indications show a changeover to snow later today. The above image is the "Dominant Precip Type" product from the NSSL-WRF. It's a nice little product passed down to me from Patrick Marsh. Notice the snow breaking out in Extreme Eastern Arkansas and West TN.... Let's go a little farther into the future as the cold air works in... and the precipitation starts moving back to the west, wrapping around the low:
At this time, the snow is falling from Jonesboro to Wynne and points East. This seem very possible and if this occurred, we would at least see a dusting to 1" on grass and cars somewhere in Eastern Arkansas. Notice the snow extending down into Northern Mississippi too! Moving ahead...
The storm starts moving East with snow still along the river, but West TN and Northern MS are still getting hammered and they will have more moisture to work with than us in Region 8...
Even into Wednesday Morning, it will be snowing in West TN. I fully expect someone near the Tennessee River to get 6"+. Should be fun to watch!

I'm packing my dinner for tonight and I will be giving updates on my Twitter feed and on the blog. Probably not a big storm for us, but we'll watch as it "clips" us!

Ryan

It's going to be a close call, but an area of low pressure may track just close enough to give us some snow late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This is going to be a tough call and snow may be falling in spots with temperatures over 32, which would limit accumulations. Here's a map from the morning GFS model. It gives a rough idea of what could occur, but I think it's not dead on. I'll post more later tonight...

The NWS in Memphis released this map to summarize the snow that fell yesterday. The NWS has done a very good job releasing snow totals quickly lately. Click the map to enlarge.

Ryan

The above image is from 7:00AM this morning. This is the INTERACTIVE radar on our website. We recently upgraded it and it is very nice! Click here to check it out for yourself.

One to two inches of snow is still the forecast for Region 8. I think the snow west of us will not be "as" impressive when it gets here. Here's the latest output from the GFS regarding TODAY'S snow:
Notice, some places in Region 8 will only see a dusting according to the GFS and I think that is right on the money. I appears the snow in Jonesboro will start around 10-11.

Now, I have been accused of having weather ADD because I always want to look ahead to the next storm. I won't dig in too deep, but look at the snow that is expected to fall Sunday into Monday:
That storm may be the one to get excited about! Click image to enlarge.

Anywho, watch out for freezing rain before the snow arrives. It's making some slick spots out there!

Take care,
Ryan

I think this is "underdone", but it is more in line with our forecast. This is the latest data from StormCAST, our in-house model. If you recall, it was showing 4-5" in spots last night for tomorrow! That was a little excessive, as I mentioned in a previous blog post.

This model shows 1.05" for Jonesboro. I'm still thinking we can squeeze out 2" of snow in Jonesboro.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

I have tweaked my forecast a little for tomorrow's snow, but not much. This may be a little conservative, but daytime accumulation always makes me a little conservative. Will someone in the 1-3" swath see more? Probably so. I can't rule out an isolated 4" snowfall in the 1-3" band, but overall... this is how I think it will pan out. We'll watch and see with the rest of you!

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Here's the morning NAM model. We're pretty confident that it will snow. Blue lines=Snow. There are still some questions on how much snow will fall. I'm thinking 1-3" is a good bet for Jonesboro, but 4" can't be ruled out.

This snow will fall during the daytime hours, so we will all get the joy of seeing it fall! Run to the store and clear the shelfs! LOL

By the way, it looks like MORE snow will come Sunday night into Monday!

We'll see you tonight!
Ryan

I know that I usually do not throw out accumulation maps until 48 hours out, but I got a little gutsy tonight. Here's my thinking right now. It's not overly impressive, but I believe we will see some travel problems at some point on Thursday. Here are some things that could mess with the accumulation forecast:

• We stay above freezing (less)
• We get more sleet/freezing rain than snow (less)
• Colder than expected (more)
• More moisture, yet still cold (more)

My point is... this could change and probably will, BUT I was in the mood to throw some darts and here we have an accumulation map on Monday for a storm on Thursday! Click the image to enlarge.

Stay tuned on air and online at http://www.kait8.com/

Have a great week everyone!
Ryan

We're going to see some rain chances over the next 24 hours, but I'm watching Thursday! We could be dealing with a decent round of sleet or freezing rain. Remember, sleet is frozen before it hits the ground and is seen as little pieces of ice. Freezing rain falls as liquid, does not have time to refreeze, and glazes the ice on all exposed surfaces.

The above timeline is using a program called BUFKIT and the time goes from right to left. The first series of green lines is the chance of rain through Tue AM. The second, more colorful series of bars would be the time period I am more concerned about this week. BUFKIT is showing rain... changing to a decent does of freezing rain/sleet... and then maybe an inch of snow. So, why ice? Take a look at the forecast sounding for 1AM Friday morning:
Consider this a vertical slice of the atmosphere at 1AM Friday morning. The red line is the temperature as you go UP through the atmosphere.The diagonal lines show the temperature and I marked the freezing line with light blue.Everything to the left of the blue line is freezing.

So, the precipitation starts as snow. As it falls, it hits a layer "above" freezing between 3600'-8300', which I marked with the yellow lines. THEN, it goes back into freezing air. If it has time to refreeze, it falls as sleet. If it does not refreeze, it hits exposed surfaces as water and freezes, forming a glaze. Either way is not great, but sleet does not cause as much of a problem!

This is just a model, but something we're going to watch closely! We've had a "Wintry Mix" in the forecast for Thursday night into Friday since Friday and we so no reason to change the forecast at this point. J-Lo will have the latest information at 5:00 and 10:00 tonight and Sarah in the morning,

Before everyone freaks out, this does not appear to be anything like THE Ice Storm from 2009!

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Many of us have been complaining about how cold it has been this week, but it was MUCH worse back in January of 1918. I pulled some old COOP Weather Observations from across Region 8 this evening to get an idea of just how bad it was in 1918. These handwritten weather journals are always interesting to see! This first one is from Jonesboro (click to enlarge):

First thing to note is the SNOW!!! Lots of SNOW!!! On the 11th it snowed 8"... and then more 15th, 16th, 19th, and 21st! At one point, this log says they had 15" of snow on the ground in Jonesboro, AR!

Second, look how COLD it was! The second column is the "lows" for the day. On the 12th, the low was 18 degrees BELOW zero. Brrrrr.

Third, look who took the weather obervations! The Benedictine Sisters! I assume that would be from the convent here on KAIT Road? I'm not sure.

Since the data from Jonesboro was so impressive, I decided to pull a few more logs from Region 8. The image below is from Marked Tree in January of 1918 (click to enlarge):
It's neat to pull from different points in Region 8 in order to see the notes and to paint a mental map of what happened in 1918. If you look at the two records above, Marked Tree had a substantial amount of snow on the 6th, but Jonesboro did not have much. This implies that the worst part of the storm was in southern Region 8 on the 6th, but isn't the gradient of snow wild! They had a dusting in Jonesboro, but 13.5" in Marked Tree! That would be wild to forecast! Marked Tree also had some snow on the 11th-12th, which brought their total snow depth to TWO FEET as noted on the 12th as having "24"" on the ground. Also, note that is was 13 degrees BELOW ZERO on the 13th!

Now let's head north and look at Mammoth Spring...
Once again, you can click the weather log to enlarge it and as you can imagine, Mammoth Spring had some incredible numbers as well! It was -23 on the 13th. They had several days of snow, with a report on the 21st saying there was 24" of snow on the ground!

Can you imagine? That would be an incredible winter! I always like looking back at incredible events in the past to remind us that it CAN happen here. Fortunately, this month does not look anything like January of 1918!

Back to work!
Ryan

Our next weather maker will mainly bring us rain, but if you notice, I left the possibility of a BRIEF period of wintry weather. When I say BRIEF, I mean BRIEF. On Sunday morning, there is chance to have 15-30 minutes of sleet before we warm up and before the air saturates. NO BIG DEAL!

Also, as cold air comes in on the tail end, we could see some flurries on Tuesday. Once again, it's no big deal.

Most of the precipitation will be plain ole rain. Latest indications show that we could see more than 1" of rain between Sunday and Monday.

The above image is the GFS data using BUFKIT. Green bars= Rain! The red line is the temperature. Notice how it trends UP and then back DOWN next week. Mores teens next week? Stay tuned.

In the meantime, stay warm!
Ryan

Take a look at my forecast from 60 hours by clicking here. Overall, I'm pleased! There was a little more snow in the Ozarks, generally 1-2", but overall, I'm pleased. Here's a map from Little Rock's National Weather Service estimating the snowfall:

As you can see, there was a little more in the north central part of the state than I realized 60 hours out. Here's another map. This one is from the Memphis National Weather Service. I see that they have "0.8" for Paragould, BUT I had 1.75" at my house. Some parts of Paragould had 2". In any case, here's the map:
You can click either one of these images to enlarge them. Overall, I'm pleased with our forecast here at KAIT. Justin did a great job tweaking the maps through the weekend and as the snow started to fall, the accumulations fell right into place. Since Thursday night, we said that Jonesboro would likely see 1-2" of snow. Woot!

Not every storm will pan out like this! We were fortunate on this one!

Bring on the next one... Then Spring!
Ryan

I've been out all night in the Wood Ford STORMTRACKER. I thought the air would never moisten enough to get snow. For an hour, it snowed in Harrisburg, but not Jonesboro. That was frustrating. Eventually it came down and roads got bad fast!

I'm pooped and going to sleep
Ryan

Forecast is still on track. The map here is some of the latest model data, snow output, using a certain algorithm. Its not a forecast, but worth looking at.... Not sure the snow ratios are quite right and a few other things, but still worth seeing. Overall, I'm still pleased at our current forecast. Some kids will get out of school tomorrow. As I mentioned almost a week ago, I'll be surprised if my kids go to school 5 days this week.

Stay tuned. Watch Justin tonight and follow my Twitter feed.

Blogging from my phone,
Ryan

Justin updated the accumulation map tonight. Based in the latest data, he's right on the money. Get ready for some slick roads. Panicometer is going up!

I should be asleep, but I'm wide awake.
Ryan

I'm sticking with the same forecast I have been giving for 2 days. See previous post if you want to see the map.

Ryan

Forecast is still on track for Region 8. This latest snow output map from the latest GFS is right in line with my map I showed on the previous blog post.This data may show a little more northerly progression...but overall, no huge change!

Stay tuned!
Ryan

I usually put out a "POSSIBLE accumulation" map out 48 hours in advance and adjust as needed, but I figured I would go ahead and throw this out there. Here' our thinking as of 3PM on Friday. A LARGE part of Region 8 will get nothing to a dusting, BUT from Jonesboro southward, 1-3" is possible and then it picks up outside of Region 8. Northern MS may get 4-8" of snow! No joke.

This will likely be adjusted a little, BUT LISTEN!!!! Parts of Region 8 will see NO SNOW by Monday morning while other will have enough to cause travel problems. STAY TUNED!!!

The weather will be the Top Story on the news tonight! Tune in to hear about any changes.

Ryan

Here's the Day three snow outlook from the HPC (which is a branch of NOAA). This shows the chances of getting a 4"+ snowfall. As we have been saying, the greater snow amounts will be south of us. Someone in AL or MS will win "The Most Snow Award" from this storm, in my opinion.

If you are from Southern MO or the top two rows of counties in AR, you could easily be left out of this storm! Everyone nod your head that you heard that....

Back to seeing phase one of our home remodeling...

Take care,
Ryan

Just woke up and glanced at the overnight data. One piece of data shows less than an inch, and the other shows over 4" for Jonesboro for Sunday night storm. I'm getting my well kid to school while my wife takes care of the sick one. :( Ill dig into the data more later. Stay tuned. And guess what... blogging from phone. Loving technology. We've come a long way from my first blog in 2004!

Ryan

The new data still supports our forecast we have at KAIT. The heavier snow amounts for Sunday night appear to be South of I-40. For Region 8, I think a simple 1-3" is a good bet. AS you head into Missouri, the amounts drop off big time.

The new GFS data is also out, but keep in mind.... It also includes the secondary system that come in Monday into Tuesday, so you'll see more snow coming in from the WNW.
This shows the 1st storm (Sunday Night) giving better snow amounts near Little Rock to Pine Bluff. The second wave will help to give 1-3" through the Region 8 counties in Southern MO.

Overall, models are fairly consistent now. It's not a huge storm, but may cause some travel issues!

Take care,
Ryan 

You may have seen me tweet that I'd be surprised if my kids went to school all five days next week. I'm sticking by that for now, BUT it appears the heaviest threat may be south of us. LOOK at the latest GFS model snow output:

Look at South Arkansas! 6-8" of snow! Now, take a deep breath and remember that this is a model and not a forecast. Let's talk about what we do know... or at least what we think as of now. I'm pretty sure we will be cold enough for all snow, BUT I'm not sold on the moisture yet. Below is the morning GFS model in BUFKIT to graph out what it showing... as of now:
All blue bars =  all snow. This is not a TON of snow though. Generally 1-3" across Region 8 with higher amounts near I-40 and Little Rock.

Something else to note.... This will come in two waves for us. First chance of snow comes from a low passing to our south. The next wave comes from an upper-level disturbance coming in from the NW. Neither provide a lot of moisture, but enough to mess up the roads and to cause some travel problems.

This is NOT in stone yet and there is some data to suggest we may see more snow here in Region 8. For the heck of it,  let's look at the GEM and it's snow output:
It "nudges" the deeper moisture a little farther north and gives us a "little" more snow.

Regardless, I still think some kids will miss some school next week due to the OVERALL PATTERN. We'll see. Stay tuned...

Ryan

The greens and yellows you see on the above image is not rain, but I am pretty confident it is a flock of birds taking off at 10:55 PM from Beebe on New Year's Eve. As you saw in the video on an earlier blog, the flock takes off to the SE. This "flare" or "bird takeoff" happens 4 times, between 9PM and 1AM. The birds can also be seen well using another radar product called Spectrum Width. The below image is Spectrum Width.
Notice the bright reds and oranges. Spectrum width shows the differences in velocities in each pixel on the radar. In other words, as birds zing back and forth in different directions/velocities from each other, radar shows a higher Spectrum Width.

I then called and talked to the Beebe Police department to see where the highest concentration of birds were found. The below image is Spectrum Width overlayed on Google Earth. The highest concentration of birds was south of Center Street and East of 167. I'd guess it would be somewhere around the "367" sign,  located in the red/orange area.

Remember, the bright orange and red areas are areas with objects in the air, moving at variables speeds, and directions. Sure looks like birds to me...

But WHY did they fall back down to Earth after taking off? Craig Rickert has a good theory that makes sense. What if fireworks scared them and that's why they took off at night... THEN another round of fireworks goes off in the middle of the flying flock and disrupts them to the point that they can't fly.... then they fall to the Earth and die of "Blunt Force Trauma" as the veterinarians said today.That's actually not a bad theory. Think about the large rockets at firework tents. Now, think of one of them going off in the middle of a VERY dense flock of birds. I could see that causing problems for the birds. I can actually see me as a kid doing this on purpose to make the birds fly... just saying.

Who knows... I'm not sure why they fell from the sky, but I do believe they can be seen on radar 4 distinct times, fleeing from Beebe.

Cue X Files music...

Ryan

EDIT: Apparently the docs say they died before hitting the ground. Meteorologist Brad Panovich may have a good theory. He says they may have collided while fleeing...

Or these theories:

What in the world is happening on radar in Beebe when thousands of birds fall from the sky? Does the radar show the birds? Does it show something that killed the birds? Is it just a coincidence? I'm not quite sure. Todd Yakoubian and I have bounced around a couple of ideas, but this radar data adds some mystery to the phenomenon. What is "flaring" up several times? What is the "line" that appears to be some sort of outflow? Todd just inspired me to download this data, but I hope to dig into some more data when I get back from dinner. Food comes first though!

Any ideas of your own? Comment away in the comments section...

Ryan

Do you want to wishcast some snow? If so, here's your magic lamp. Rub on the 00Z GFS and your wish for snow is possible. The above image is the BUFKIT program. Since the time goes from right to left, you can see that this "snow" is SEVERAL days out.

The GFS has flip-flopped back and forth on this storm. The previous model run showed NO snow. Since this is so far out, I'm not going to talk much about it. As my colleague, James Spann, says... this is just "trolling" for storms.

Worth watching!
Ryan

I'll admit that I don't have the best memory in the world, but like many of you, I've been reflecting back on 2010.  The high point for me was being in Oklahoma with Vortex2 on May 10th for the big tornado outbreak.That was very eye-opening and educational. My low point was my wife's car accident. Fortunately, God is in control and everything went as well as it could have in that situation. Glancing over each month... this is what stands out:

January: Haiti Earthquake and a pretty big snow in Region 8 near the end of the month.

February: Chile Earthquake and another big snow in Region 8. ALSO, one day all 50 states had some snow on the ground!

March: Some severe weather across the area including a tornado in Doniphan and some hail in Jonesboro.

April: Some storm damage in Marmaduke and a tornado at Big Lake and we had video!

May: Big Tornado Outbreak in OK. I was there with Vortex2

June: My family and I are on the beach when The Oil Spill slams Gulf Shores. Big history lesson for my boys.

July: Can't think of anything? I know I'm missing something!

August: New weather graphics and an entire overhaul of weather computers at KAIT!

September: My wife's car accident. Not fun.

October: Earthquakes in Guy, AR start ramping up!

November: Had my first White Thanksgiving! It was in Fort Leonardwood...

December: Lots of birthdays in our family! Plus, we began a new personal venture for our family... and of course, the tornadoes from Western AR stick out from New Year's Eve.

That's not an official year in review... It's just what is off of the top of my head. I hope all of you have a great 2011!

Take care,
Rya