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Last night, a 4.7 magnitude Earthquake hit the central part of Arkansas. It was the strongest earthquake since 1976, when a 5.0 struck near Marked Tree (see above map). Many people across Region 8 felt the Earthquake, including my family. Here's a heliocorder from Gosnell, AR showing the Earthquake. I'm sure you can see where it is on this graph:
The Earthquake in 1976 and the Earthquake last night are not the same though. The Earthquake in 1976 was long the New Madrid Fault. The Earthquake last night... well, I'm not sure what that is about. If you click here, you can see how many Earthquakes we have had in northern Faulkner County recently and you can see every Arkansas earthquake in history. I have some theories on why there have been so many Earthquakes in Central AR, but there's not enough scientific evidence to even mention it on the blog. Something is different than in years past though....

Did you feel it? What are your thoughts? Feel free to comment!
Ryan

Within the past hour, we had one storm with lightning in Randolph County and earlier a storm had a tornado warning in TN. Besides that, it is quiet and we are waiting. The atmosphere is juiced up and ready, but we need a "push" to get the storms firing. I would hope that it does not come, but I doubt it.

In the above image, I have radar, dewpoints, and the current TORH index which is an experimental index to mark an environment conducive for tornadoes. Dewpoints are in the 60s and that's plenty of juice in the atmosphere. You probably felt that when you stepped outside. We're just waiting now....

There is a tornado ON THE GROUND as I type this blog entry on the Kansas and Oklahoma line. Those storms are from the same storm moving into Region 8 tonight.

Let's prepare, but hope for the best. Who knows, we may not even break into the Oscars Programming tonight. We'll see.

Ryan

The area in red is the "moderate" risk from SPC. The model shown is similar to what Justin showed last night on StormCAST. The coverage is not widespread. The rain would not last long, BUT it shows a couple of storms shortly after 8PM tonight that could easily be strong or tornadic.

If you look at radar this evening and you do not see anything, do NOT let your guard down. It would not surprise me to see 1-2 cells form rapidly somewhere in the Midsouth and quickly become severe.

More storms will come later in the night... after midnight toward morning.

We'll be watching it closely!

Off to Church!
Ryan

There's a big upper-low causing problems in LA for the Academy Awards and that upper-level system is heading east! Guess what that means? Yep, storms for us. Here's a look at Sunday evening. I'm showing isobars and simulated radar:
Notice that there is not much out there at this time according to this model. Remember, this is a model and not EXACTLY what will happen. I believe there is a chance for us to have a couple of renegade storms at this time somewhere in the Midsouth. The air is going to be pretty unstable. Take a look at the exact same time period and the same model and look at the CAPE (blues/yellows), which is a measure of the energy to fuel storms:
So, while we will not see a huge area of coverage, any storms that do form will need to be watched closely. As we go deeper into the night and into the weeee hours of the morning, the front will pass through providing more storms and some of them could be severe:
All threats of storms should be out of Region 8 no later than 9AM on MONDAY, if not well before.

I have heard some say that this will be similar to Thursday night and I don't agree for Region 8. We will not see 3-7" rainfall totals and the coverage will not be extensive as Thursday, but I actually think some of the storms could be stronger. One thing that will limit the strength of the storms will be that they are coming in without daytime heating. BUT, if they do get going... people will be asleep. Not good.

Well watch it!
Ryan

The above image is what is happening this morning across the country. The line of showers and storms on the East Coast is what we had last night in Region 8. As you can see, we awoke to 30s and northerly winds. Click the image to enlarge. While we are cold and dry now, we will quickly start transitioning back to a warmer pattern tomorrow. In fact, we should be 20 degrees WARMER for Saturday. The weekend is actually looking pretty good! It appears the thunderstorms will return Sunday, leaving most of the daytime hours dry and warm on Sunday! The below image is Sunday night at midnight and shows the instability and isobars.
We're going to watch Sunday night closely. Make sure the weather radios are on! I'll continue to keep you posted with blog posts and Twitter, the micro blogging awesomeness of the world today!

Ryan

As I type this, I have already had 2"+ of rain at my house and it is still raining. While we have had some thunder and lightning, the risk for severe weather does not really exist right now. We're watching the unstable air south of us and it's still no guarantee that it will make it this far north. In the above image (click to enlarge), I have plotted the radar at 8:30 AM and the current dewpoints. I have hatched out the areas with dewpoints of 60 and above. That's the more moist and eventually the more unstable air. If our dewpoints do not climb to 60 or at least 55, our severe weather threat will be much, much lower. Now let's look at this evening...
The above image shows simulated radar and pressure. This has the low passing north of us, which could lead to more of an unstable environment. It shows some decent storm in SE Arkansas and I really feel confident that the greater threat will be along and south of I40. This can change and the forecast is very fluid today. There will be a lot of nowcasting today.Publish Post

Look for my Tweets on Twitter for updates between blog post at @ryanvaughan or on the right side of this page.

Ryan

Here's the latest data from StormCAST HD regarding tomorrow evening. This is 7PM on Thursday and it shows a squall line moving through Region 8. This is a good thing. A more linear storm system would be better than individual supercells. I also looked at the latest Tornado Potential product from StormCAST and it shows a very low threat for tornadoes. Heavy rain is still a great concern though. Below is the estimated 48 hour rainfall totals from StormCAST
Remember, this is just one model that we look at to forecast and other data suggests more rainfall than what is seen in the above image. For those that don't know, StormCAST is a model we run here at KAIT. It is a HIGH resolution model grid for Region 8.

Once we get through Thursday, we have to start watching Sunday Evening. Initially, it seemed the next storm would arrive on Monday, but it now appears faster and stronger than Thursday's storm....
If you notice the image above, it is what could be happening in the upper-atmosphere on Sunday evening. The bright greens and yellows are high winds aloft. The solid lines are 500mb heights and when they "fan" out over Region 8... it creates "lift" and storms. Let's not get weather ADD though and stay focused on Thursday first.

Take care,
Ryan

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather for Region 8 for Thursday. While I initially thought this may be a little overdone, I'm starting to buy into the fact that dangerous storms may arrive late on Thursday for parts of Region 8. The greatest risk for severe weather will be where the spin meets the instability.
If you just look at the instability parameters, it's not overly impressive in NE Arkansas, but it is enough to get these storms going. The above image is CAPE and it shows some higher amounts of CAPE in the state. Now, let's combine the CAPE with the shear to see the greatest threat....
When you combine the the shear and instability to pinpoint the area of greatest concern (EHI), you will see an elevated risk of tornadoes between Jonesboro and Memphis. This is the area we need to watch late on Thursday. Keep in mind, if the warm front does not lift far enough north, the unstable air does not come into play and we only get heavy rain. That would be awesome! I root for Region 8... not tornadoes. Heavy rain will come in regardless...
The above image is the expected rainfall! Over 3" of rain is possible, if not more, in parts of Region 8. Stay ahead of the storm over the next 36 hours by staying in touch with us on air and online.

Take care,
Ryan

You may have heard me talk about the "return flow" from time to time. I try to avoid using that term because it is not real conversational and really doesn't express what is really happening in the atmosphere. The above image is the BUFKIT program showing the model output of the GFS through 72 hours. I have plotted the winds from the surface and above to show you the "return flow" that should take place after this cool down we are feeling today. The timeline goes from RIGHT to LEFT. I have marked the cool northerly flow we are seeing today with the blue arrow and the warmer, more moist (return flow) with the yellow arrow. As this flow transitions, the axis of high pressure will move over. The CENTER of high pressure will be north of us, so the H that I have plotted on the graphic is a little deceiving. Regardless, I think you get the point.

The warmer air may help fuel some storms on Thursday. More blogging about that later today.

Ryan

A decent center of low pressure is set to come through on Thursday (see image). Models are in pretty good agreement that we'll see a decent rainfall. There is some chatter about the threat of severe weather among the state too. As I have been mentioning on Twitter, I'm not sold on a severe weather outbreak. I'm not saying it is impossible and I'm not saying we will not see some severe watches, warnings, or even severe wx reports. I'm just saying that this does not appear to be an outbreak with widespread damage. It's only Monday and I may feel differently  tomorrow.

I DO think we will see lightning, hear thunder, and even see some heavy rain! Below is a map of the expected rainfall from the GFS:
Notice the area of red/orange on the map. That indicates 4-5 inches of rain! That would be enough to cause some issues in some spots.

So, stay tuned to the latest information. If I start feeling more confident about the severe weather threat, I'll tell yah!

Ryan

The above graph shows several models and how much snow each one is showing for Jonesboro using various methods to calculate the amounts. Click the image to enlarge. As you can see, it's not as easy as "looking at a model" to see what happens. Storm track, radar trends, temperature profiles, etc, etc factor into how much snow we will see. It's not easy, but possible. Yes, we change our forecast leading up to the storm based on new data. I'm not sure why that bothers people. The forecast will be "tweaked" as we get closer to the storm.

The snow is falling now. It started sticking fast and I started getting a little anxious about our forecast at first, but we're good. I went 2-4" for Jonesboro at 6:00 last night... then backed it down to 1-3". (Not a big deal"... Sarah this morning is going 2-5" areawide and I think that is good for now. Could a few spots get 6"? Sure, we mentioned that in all newscasts... Mainly SW of Jonesboro.

Here's the problem. It's a dry and powdery snow and is blowing around like crazy! It's going to be hard to measure. In a 10x10 square a person can measure a range of 5" easily! LOL

Here's the deal... the roads are going to be bad. Many people can sled. It's going to be cold. Whether you get 2-3" or 4-6", the result will be very similar. Even if you have 2"... I bet you can find a snow drift that measures much more! :)

Enjoy it! It happened... again.

Ryan

This short-term model, the RUC, shows the snow starting in Jonesboro around 11AM and it gives us about 2" of snow on a 15:1 ratio by 5PM.

Stay tuned,
Ryan

Here's a quick video update looking over the midday run of the NAM. It is more in line with our forecast I believe. Take a look and we'll continue to keep you updated. Tune in tonight for the latest info and watch for the warming trend in the 7 Day forecast!

Ryan

I started video updates years ago and I'm going to try it again. I'm not sure I'm sold on doing video updates... but who knows. Here's a look at the evening run of the NAM that just came in..

Ryan

One model we often use as a storm is approaching is the RUC model or Rapid Update Cycle. It's really short term. Look at what it shows through 10AM. A solid 1-2" of snow is shown here, but look at Mississippi County. This particular model shows 3-5" of snow for Mississippi County through 10AM. I'm not going to completely rule that out, but we have been in the 40s today and we'll have to see the temperatures fall fast in order to see amounts like that... We would also have to see the snow come down pretty hard.

I'm not saying it could not happen, but it's "conditional". We'll continue to track the storm tonight, but as of right now... look for 1-2" of snow through tomorrow morning.

Don't forget to use the Interactive Radar by clicking here: http://www.kait8.com/Global/category.asp?C=90388

Take care!
Ryan

There are two chances for snow over the next few days. First off, Wednesday looks to be the most promising day.We have a storm passing through tomorrow, but I'm not 100% sold on it accumulating, but we'll have to watch and see. IF we can changeover to snow before the storm exits, we may pickup an inch of snow again by Monday morning. That's the blue lines on the left. THEN, Wednesday we have a low pressure passing to our south with cold air in place. It's possible to see 3-5" of snow from that system! Here's the map for Wednesday:
My forecast for this winter called for a few "nuisance" winter storms... one big winter storm... and a tornado outbreak before March. We have had some little winter storms. Wednesday may be our big winter storm... and then we will warm up in 2 weeks. Could that be the fuel for storms before the end of the month? It may be... Look at the temperatures in 2 weeks! 60s and maybe some 70s in the region are not out of the question:
Here's the deal... February is going to be a month when you want to stay with us to catch the latest forecast! It could get a little bumpy!

Ryan

I'm not going to dig into this data, BUT the 00Z GFS model clearly shows the three chances of snow I spoke about on Region 8 News at 10. Tomorrow... Monday... and sometime next week... we could see a big storm. It initially looked like Wednesday, but this model run is a little faster. Regardless, I hope you are ready for  more snow. VERY COOOOOOLD next week!

Ryan

We continue to watch the chance of snow on Friday. The latest run of StormCAST is impressed with the chance of snow and as you can see in the image above, it has parts of Region 8 getting an inch or so of snow by Saturday morning. This will not be a huge storm, but maybe another nuisance storm. As you can see, there will be a better chance of accumulation in West TN.

I'm not too stressed about this storm. Since it comes in late Friday, the chance of it impacting area schools is very low. If you have Friday night plans, be aware that you need to stay up to date on the latest forecast.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Honestly, I have not even heard if the groundhog in Pennsylvania or Georgia saw his or her shadow, but I can guarantee you that winter is not over. Below is a program we use to display various weather data. The timestamp goes from right to left. I'm showing accumulated precipitation (blue is snow, green is rain), temperature (red line), dewpoint (green line), and clouds. Hopefully, this is pretty simple to read...

This is a screen shot of the NEW Interactive Radar on www.kait8.com . Notice that there are streaming cameras from the storm that you can watch AND you can see where there are lightning strikes within the sleet and snow! This is one of the coolest tools we have ever offered! I'm going to be glued to it through Wednesday! Check it out and tell me what you think!

Ryan