ryansmorningblog-Bay-Net

I have a friend that farms in Leachville. I'm waiting for him to text me to ask if tomorrow is the start of the drought. I may have to answer, yes. We are seeing a pattern change over the next few days. Let's take a look at some upper level maps that show us what the pattern will be over the next week. First, let's look at what we have today:

Right now, a trough of low pressure is causing clouds and showers in the Eastern part of the USA and a disturbance moving through the northern parts of the US has showers and storm. We run the risk of seeing a few storms late today and tonight as the disturbance passes north of us, but the pattern is changing! By Sunday we start seeing the Ridge building in:
A dome of high pressure in Mexico starts nudging NE, which will start to raise our temperatures as the air compresses. Compressed air heats up! On to Memorial Day:
The large area of high pressure is over the Eastern US and keeping a large part of the area dry and hot. In fact, take a look at the temperatures across the country for Memorial Day at 1PM (click to enlarge):
We could easily be in the 90s for several afternoons next week. As we go toward the end of May, look how the ridge is still hanging out:
As we transition to summer, keep in mind that a pop up storm is possible each afternoon somewhere. Here's my point though, the summer pattern starts tomorrow and there is no sign of it letting go for several days.

Stay cool next week!
Ryan

I do not have a ton of time to blog this morning as we prepare for tornadoes later today. The above image is the the risk from the Storm Prediction Center. Notice the high risk for parts of our viewing area. Let me throw out a few bullet points:

• Tornadoes are Likely
• The storms will be scattered and many people will stay dry. If you recall, our worst tornado in recent years (Marmaduke) only had 2 storms on radar. Just a thought...
• Most likely place to see severe wx will be Mississippi County, Dunklin and Pemiscot counties, but anywhere in Region 8 must be on guard.
• Storms will start firing sometime around 3-4 PM, give or take an hour.
• Severe threat will hopefully be out of here by 11PM.
• If you have friends or family that have a basement, hang out with them tonight.
• Staying in a mobile home is not acceptable tonight.

We have our first Hays Backyard BBQ this evening and I hope that the storms do no mess with it too much. The air is pretty unstable and a little disturbance may help spark some storms this evening.

Models are picking up on this "possibility" in the above image, but many of us will still see sunshine. While there is a threat of severe weather today, the greater risk is tomorrow (Wed). As an area of low pressure moves in and passes to our north, the severe weather threat shoot up! Here's the position of the upper-low tomorrow evening and the vorticity associated with it....
The Storm Prediction Center has us in a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow and it would not surprise me to see us upgraded to a (rare) high risk. Here's the risk so far:
Data continues to show that tomorrow afternoon and evening are the time periods we need to watch closely. I know tomorrow is Oprah's last show, but I'm sure even Oprah would want us to break into regular programming. Here's the data showing where the storms will erupt tomorrow PM:
Stay aware of the weather over the next 48 hours!!! For the latest information, turn to KAIT and we will have info on the bottom of the screen. Also, follow me on twitter @ryanvaughan

Ryan

Models are guidance to help us forecast and here at KAIT we run our own model in the Storm Center called Super MicroCAST. On air, we call this StormCAST. It's job is to model what the atmosphere may do over the next 48-60 hours. As with any model, it has it's times of being wrong, but I really think it is dialed in these days. We have been making some adjustments to make it as accurate as possible. It's great to see when it picks up the overall trends, but when it nails the timing and location of the rain... it's really awesome.

The above image is what I showed at 5:00 and 6:00 last night. It's what StormCAST thought would be happening at 3:00 PM this afternoon. Below is an image of the Satellite and Radar at 3:00 PM:

I think it is safe to say that StormCAST is doing very well right now. As a side note, we included some slight rain chances for today and tomorrow. A big influence in that decision was based on StormCAST. I'm glad we did that!

Rain chances will really start picking up over the next few days, so get ready. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, make sure you have a plan B.

Have a great week,
Ryan

When I started this blog, it was a mix of personal life and weather stuff. For some reason, it has become all weather. I'm not sure if Facebook changed that or what, but I'm going to change things up a bit. My wife is starting a blog, which could be dangerous. While designing her blog, she was scrolling through mine and I noticed it was full of maps and radar images. I realized that I need to shake it up a little, SOOOO here are my kids! Side note: Go back to the first month of the blog in 2004 by clicking here.

At the baseball field tonight, I had a guy tell me that my oldest son was polite and well-behaved. I didn't think much about it until I was driving home and I realized that it is OK to be proud of your kids. Being proud of your kids is different from bragging, but I may start bragging more too!

My wife and I take raising our kids seriously. We have a responsibility to raise them right and so far... so good... I think.

There's not much more to say... I just want everyone to know that I'm proud of my kids! It's Wednesday, so goodnight!

Ryan

While I do NOT think anyone will see frost and I do NOT think we will go into the 30s in most of Region 8, there will be some isolated areas that go into the upper 30s over the next two mornings. The above image shows tomorrow morning and notice the 30s dipping into northwest and north-central Arkansas. (Click image to enlarge). With that said, there is a little "50" near Jonesboro. I have 40s in the forecast for Jonesboro, but some areas will be very close to 50. This next map is Wednesday morning:
This map does not look too different from Tuesday morning, but notice the warming to the southwest. That warmer air will overspread Region 8 later this week.

Stay warm over the next few mornings. Shorts for the kids at school is not a good idea until Thursday!

Ryan

If you look at the storm reports from today, you will notice that there are a cluster of red dots in Indiana and Ohio indicating tornadoes. While I suppose they are officially considered tornado reports, they are very weak tornadoes called cold air funnels. They do not form under the same conditions as full blown TORNADOES! They are skinny, rope-looking funnels that from a higher base and may not even have a thunderstorm associated with them! Since they form at a higher base, they typically do not reach the ground. In the rare instances they do touch down, they are weak and cause minimal damage. If you are wondering... yes we have had them here in Region 8.

Take a look at the upper-level map from this evening. The upper-low has been parked on the area that had the funnels...
So... why am I going on and on about some cold air funnels in Indiana and Ohio? It's because I think there is a CHANCE we could see some tomorrow. It's a small chance, but a chance. If you notice in the above image, there is some upper-level energy coming through Nebraska. That is heading our way and will be overhead late tomorrow as a better organized upper-low. See the map for tomorrow evening:
This low will help draw down a reinforcing shot of cold air for tomorrow night through Monday. I can't guarantee that we will have cold air funnels, but I can say it is possible. I want to blog about it now, in case people panic tomorrow evening. Once again, in the RARE chance that one touches down, it will be rather weak.

If you are reading this and you are in Alabama (my old stomping grounds), then you run the risk of cold air funnels on Monday.

Have a camera ready, just in case!
Ryan

It's been warm and muggy! We have highs in the 80s and a moist, SW flow has kept us a little humid. The above map shows what is happening in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. Notice the bullseye in Western Kansas? That is an upper-level low that is heading this way. It will bring some scattered storms and a pattern change that will cool us off.
By tomorrow, that low will be almost overhead. Our rain chances will be higher and the overall flow will be more westerly and northwestly, which will bring cooler weather to Region 8. If you notice, there is another upper-level low in Minnesota that will dive south to bring a reinforcing shot of cool air by the first of the week.
Monday' map shows that second upper-low overhead. We will struggle to make it out of the 60s in this pattern. While I love warm/hot weather, I'm going to enjoy this last little cool down too.

Have a great day. We'll be watching for a few strong storms tomorrow, but nothing too crazy... we hope.

Ryan

These images were released by NASA to show the flooding in the Memphis area, but the more interesting part of these images may be what is happening to Payneway, AR. You see, it's flooding in Payneway, but they are on the "dry" side of the levee. Natural assumption would be that the levee broke, but that's not the case. My News Director who grew up in the area, Hatton Weeks, pointed out what is happening. Click the image to enlarge and here is a zoomed in image...
The water typically flows from north to south (green arrows) and stays to the East of the levee, which I marked with a red line. That levee ENDS well south of Payneway, but since the water flows from north to south, that's typically not a problem. However, the Mississippi river is HIGH and the water here on the St. Francis spillway is flowing backwards! So it's going up the OTHER side of the levee and flooding Payneway!

To my knowledge, there has not been a levee break, but the water is rising due to the water flowing in the opposite direction of how the levee system was designed. I marked this flow with red arrows.

If you are wondering what it looks like when it is not flooded, here is an image from this time last year:
So, until the water starts flowing in the right direction, the flooding is going to persist in Payneway. Odd situation that will hopefully end soon.

Big thanks to Hatton for explaining the levee system in that area.

Ryan

The Storm Prediction Center has a good chunk of Arkansas flagged for severe weather on Thursday as seen above. I tend to agree with them. The current postion of the Upper-Low is seen below using SimuAWIPS. I have 500mb Heights (Upper-Level) and Water Vapor Satellite Imagery plotted. It is currently in the southwestern part of the US.
This low will shift East, give us a chance of storms on Thursday and Friday, and try to linger into the weekend to keep us cooler with a slight chance of rain. Below is the position of the low from the latest NAM model run on Saturday AM. Plotted is the 500mb Forecast heights and 500mb vorticity. You can see, the Upper-low is over us on Saturday morning and the stronger Upper-low is north of us:
As this storm system comes in, the air will become very unstable. The graph below using the BUFKIT program shows the instbility peaking on Thursday evening between 7-9PM. The time-stamp goes from right to left:
The image below is still BUFKIT and it shows several indices we look at to determine the threat of severe weather. Without getting too geeky, there are several signs pointing to severe weather on Thursday evening. The main thing is... we should be very unstable! I tweeted this earlier, but red bars are not good. :)

Now, let's look at the current situation. Can you find the Cache River now? Black, White, Mississippi Rivers are easy to spot! What bout the Mississippi River at Birds Point Levee? It is like the Midsouth's new Great Lake! Click this image to enlarge too...
This flood is massive, but will end soon. The rivers in many spot have crested and are falling slowly. The Mississippi River at Memphis should start falling this weekend, but it will be slow. Give it a month and we'll all want rain again, but for now... the sunshine is nice.

Personal Note: I may head over to Memphis this week to witness the flooding first hand. I'm not sure we'll ever see it this bad again. You never know.

Ryan

The above image is the estimated track of the tornado/funnel that went over Craighead county last week based on the damage surveys from the National Weather Service. (Click images to enlarge) The damage survey has been completed and I've mapped it out on Google Earth. It appears that the tornado touched down 4 times (not counting open fields). The first time it touched down and caused damage according to the survey from the National Weather Service was at 2:56 PM. This was on Highway 1 south of Jonesboro and caused EF 0 damage with peak winds at 75 mph. This is when the JPD officer first spotted it. Here's the survey:

..PRELIMINARY EF-0 TORNADO IN CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS...
* COUNTIES: CRAIGHEAD COUNTY ARKANSAS.
* LOCATION: 5 MILES SOUTH OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS ON EITHER SIDE OF
STATE HIGHWAY ONE.
* TIME: 256 PM ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 27 2011
* BEGINNING POINT: 35.73809, -90.69490
* ENDING POINT: 35.73989, -90.69076
* RATING: EF-0
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 75 MPH
* PATH LENGTH: 0.3 MILES
* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS
* FATALITIES: 0
* INJURIES: 0
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: PARTIAL ROOF DAMAGE TO BUSINESS OFFICE
BUILDING AND TWO STORAGE GARAGE DOORS BLOWN IN. OTHER DAMAGE
INCLUDED ONE BLOWN WINDOW FROM A BUSINESS AND A PARTIALLY DOWNED
CHAIN LINK FENCE
The storm may have pulled up and then touched down just north of Bay. Thanks to the JPD officer, we knew the tornado was a threat at this point. If you missed my last blog post about this tornado, click here. The damage in Bay, AR occurred around 3:01 PM and it was the most extensive of this path and was rated EF2 with peak winds at 115 mph. I know we received one report of winds clocked at 113 mph from an aviation company to validate that rating. Here's the survey of this point from the National Weather Service:


PRELIMINARY EF-2 TORNADO IN CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS...
* COUNTIES: CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS
* LOCATION: BAY ARKANSAS ALONG HIGHWAY 158 TO BAY ARKANSAS NEAR
HIGHWAY 63.
* TIME: 301 PM ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 27 2011
* BEGINNING POINT: 35.79927, -90.59313
* ENDING POINT: 35.76499, -90.58368
* RATING: EF-2
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115 MPH
* PATH LENGTH: 0.7 MILES
* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 200 YARDS
* FATALITIES: 0
* INJURIES: 0
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: LIFTED CARPORT AWNING AND OTHER LIGHT DEBRIS
FROM THE BAY ARKANSAS AIRPORT.




The storm continued NW and it appears that it pulled up again. The next damage point was West of Lake City at 3:08 PM. The tornado damage here was rated EF1, with maximum winds at 90 mph. Here's the survey report of that damage:


...PRELIMINARY EF-1 TORNADO IN CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS...
* COUNTIES: CRAIGHEAD COUNTY ARKANSAS.
* LOCATION: 2 MILES SOUTH OF BOWMAN ARKANSAS ALONG COUNTY ROAD
683...TO STATE HIGHWAY 18 IN BOWMAN ARKANSAS.
* TIME: 308 PM ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 27 2011
* BEGINNING POINT: 35.80246, -90.50739
* ENDING POINT: 35.82255, -90.49305
* RATING: EF-1
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
* PATH LENGTH: 1.6 MILES
* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 250 YARDS
* FATALITIES: 0
* INJURIES: 0
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: DAMAGE TO FIVE HOMES AND ONE BUSINESS GARAGE.
MAINLY ROOF DAMAGE TO THREE MANUFACTURED HOMES...TWO BRICK HOMES AND
ONE BUSINESS GARAGE. OTHER DAMAGE INCLUDED A DESTROYED STORAGE
SHED...CHAIN LINK FENCE AND A FEW TREE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF.


At this point, there were several eyes on this storm and we had reports of it going up and down and radar showed the storm weakening. The last damage survey point was near Highway 18 between Black Oak and Monette. This survey also shows it was weakening and corresponds well with the report of it pulling up right on Hwy 18. Here's the final damage point from the National Weather Service. A rating of EF0 with peak winds at 75 mph.


You can click any of the images to enlarge. 


One of the best things about this survey is that we had 0 injuries and 0 fatalities. I credit much of that to the JPD officer that spotted it when it first touched down south of Jonesboro. Ground reports are critical. Radar is great, but ground reports are so much better. The credible report from the officer was great, but we did not know about the report in the Storm Center until 3-4 minutes later. We are meeting with the E911 center tomorrow to establish better communication in the future. I'll keep you posted on that.


Have a great day! 
Ryan


PS- As some of you know, my wife has been in the hospital battling some respiratory issues. She's out and getting better. I'll be back to work tomorrow. Big thanks the the Poplar Bluff ER staff and the staff at AMMC!

I can't cover this record flooding on my blog any better than it is being covered on our website at www.kait8.com Extensive information there.

My wife that is not feeling too well right now, so I'm out of the mix for today (at least). Hopefully she gets to feeling well soon. In the meantime, I'm going to be disconnected from weasther and will be at the hospital or running the boys around. Nothing too serious and she is not in pain. Many people have it far worse than us. Thanks for your prayers though.

Ryan