ryansmorningblog-Bay-Net

The latest data shows that Region 8 may get a little more rain from Isaac due to a slightly more easterly track. This map is a pretty solid projection on the rainfall we may see in Region 8 over the next 3 days:

The latest forecast path from the National Hurricane Center still appears farther west than I think Isaac will go... Regardless, we are going to be impacted. Here's the 10am outlook:
So, yes we will see rain. Yes, we will see some wind (20-30 mph), but when will it come in? We already have it entering the southern parts of Region 8 along I 40 at noon. I expect the rain to overspread Region 8 between now and 10 PM and may stick around through Saturday.

If you have football games or practices tonight and tomorrow, plan for rain. Take ponchos. Tropical systems do not have a lot of lightning, so these games will probably go on unless we start seeing a lot of tornado warnings. We could have some sloppy ball games!

As with any tropical storm system, there is a risk of weak tornadoes. The threat for tornadoes increases tonight and will exist all day tomorrow.

I am off today. I scheduled this vacation day a few weeks back to spend time with family and to help with my son's football team. Practice may be wet!!! If we start seeing lots of tornado warnings or flooding problems, I will be going into the Storm Center with B-Mac (Bryan McCormick). Hopefully, we have a quiet and steady rainfall.

I hope this answers all of your questions! Stay aware! I can't stress enough that the fastest updates come from our Twitter feeds! Follow @ryanvaughan and @Region8News for updates!

Ryan

Some people were joking about me tracking Isaac when it was out in the Atlantic, but as we learned with Ike a few years back.... we must watch the Tropics in Region 8. There are still a lot of questions with the path, but if it takes the path from the Hurricane Center issued at 4PM, we could see some substantial rain. Here is the CURRENT forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center:
First, notice that parts of Southern Mississippi could get over 16" of rain!!! IF it takes the path on the NOAA forecast, we could see over 5" of rainfall! That would wipe out about 40% of our deficit. In addition to heavy rain, we could see some wind. 20-30 mph winds would be possible. Here's a map we will watch closely. Clearly, the PROBABILITY of seeing Tropical Storm winds goes down with time. You won't see 75-100% chances of TS winds 5 days out. Make sense? As it gets closer, our chances could go up:
Lastly, we started running a 20km resolution grid on StormCAST over Isaac's path last week. Here is what it shows right now for Wednesday at 8PM. It only goes out 48 hours. Once again, we'll watch this closely:
I'm off work tonight, but Bryan is watching it closely! Tune in tomorrow morning with Sarah Tipton for the latest information. We could easily be dealing with rain and wind later this week!

Ryan

We may get a little hint of fall this weekend! I REALLY hope this pans out because I am ready for a little taste of fall. We're not talking about a big blast of cold air, but having highs in the 80s is a real possibility. The above map is what is happening this morning. The colors are showing "Theta E", which is a way of seeing where the more refreshing air is located. More or less, it's the green area. Simple enough? Notice, it wasn't too bad this morning! Let's fast forward to Saturday!
Yay! Big blob of green dives south! This could mean lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid and upper 80s. Let's hope this does not change! This will be the focal point of our forecast this week. Stay tuned for any changes!

Ryan