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Many people have asked if this is the coldest March ever. The answer is no, but it is one of the coldest! Here is a list of the Top 10 Coldest Marches on record so far (from NWS Memphis). If the month ended today, it would be the 6th coldest on record with an average temperature of 44.2 degrees. This month is not on the list until the month is over:

Here's an update to the Almanac Blog. Sandy Anders sent me this image from her Farmer's Almanac:

It snowed on March 21st. So, did the Almanac call for it? Well, the Farmer's Almanac is the king of being vague enough to be accurate. If your local meteorologist calls for snow by 3PM and it starts at 5PM, we get complaints. If we call for 3" of snow and we get 5", people complain. If the Almanac calls for snow somewhere between Fayettville, AR to Bristol, TN and was off by a week... people say it nailed the forecast. If you notice, it says "Sunny and Warm" during the period that it actually snowed. It also says that we should be warm right now. The temperature was 31 at my house this morning and we are 15 degrees below average.

Here's the deal. I don't hate the Farmer's Almanac. I'm just not a fan of people saying it is accurate. It's a publication based on climatology, large areas, and vague generalities.

It's good to use for average planting times, sunrise/sunsets, moon phases, etc. I would not plan a wedding on it though! :)

Thanks to Sandy for the pic of the page! I have been asking around for it!

Ryan

EDIT: New info and blog in reference to blog below. Click here

Last week when it snowed, I had a few people tweet me that the Farmer's Almanac called for this snow months ago. I really did not believe that, so I kept asking people for a copy of the Almanac  Last night, Allison Munn sent me this page from the Farmer's Almanac. Click the image to enlarge:

As always, after big storms, I like to check how we performed on the forecast. I do this to learn something for the next time it happens. This storm was the latest snowfall I had ever forecast. Late season/ early Spring snowfalls are rare and they are different storms than we deal with in the middle of winter. As I look at our forecast and what really happened, I can clearly see one positive and one negative.

The positive is that we clearly pinpointed where it would snow and where it would not. Some data suggested the snow would be a little farther south and some data suggested that the snow would stay in Missouri. I feel we nailed the rain/snow line.

The negative is that I underestimated the totals. We thought the highest snowfall would be 5", but some places saw 7-8". I thought that the warmth from last week, the late season timing, surface temperatures, etc would hold the numbers down, but apparently not. Now, with that said, you had to measure the snow early today before it started melting! So, here is the data. The first map shows the official snow reports to the National Weather Service and CoCoRaHS observers. The second map is the forecast we had for this storm for most of the week.

SNOW REPORTS:

OUR FORECAST:

Overall, I'm pleased. Now, it's time to start the transition to severe weather mode. I have a feeling that April and May are going to be active.

Take care,
Ryan

I'm staying up late to check more data, plus March Madness begins later today... so I'm excited. Our forecast has not changed much, but here are the bullet points:

• Snow and rain will start by mid afternoon.
• Most of the precipitation will fall sometime between 4PM and Midnight.
• Some parts of Region 8 will see mostly rain.
• Some parts of Region 8 will see mostly snow through midnight. 
• It will be hard (but possible) to see accumulation on the roads.
• Any snow you get will melt fast.

I have adjusted the map a little this afternoon. As I mentioned, this is a very tricky forecast and you will see many different forecasts out there. That's how tricky forecasts typically unfold. Our forecast is probably lower than many, but I think it is going to be tough to get this snow to accumulate. It's a late season snow, it's a wet snow, it will melt fast, and will compact easily. There are many variables against a huge snowfall, but if the cold air and moisture are there... it "could" be a little more than our current forecast.

Today's snowfall map (above) was adjusted to bring the possible accumulations a little farther south and east. I also adjusted the numbers to reflect the possiblity of 3" in the white areas. With that said, LOOK AT THE LOWER NUMBERS, TOO! Far too often, we forecast 1-3" and people only see 3". If you took the lower end of our current forecast, the highest amount for the entire area would be 3". Remember that. ;)

So, now we wait and see. Only a couple more model runs will come in before it arrives. Let's see what happens! Fun times.

Ryan

It's about 11:15 am as I write this and we have not had a lot of change in our thinking for tomorrow's snowfall. Latest data still supports the map that I showed in yesterday's blog post. You can read that post by CLICKING HERE. Since that blog post, more counties have been added to Arkansas. Stay tuned! In case you missed it, Bryan just showed the latest data from our in-house computer model. I think it is doing a good job! Here it is:

• The snow threat is for late Thursday and Thursday Night.
• This storm has a high chance of "busting" (being forecast wrongly)
• The highest snow totals will be in the Ozarks.
• Roads may not get too bad due to recent warm days and temperatures not too cold during event.
• Thundersnow is possible.
• Some people will get NO SNOW.

So, let me start by saying that some of the stress that goes along with forecasting snow has been removed since many kids are out of school for Spring Break! That helps, because this storm is going to be a PAIN. As you see in the above graphic that I made this evening, some places will see a decent snowfall if our forecast does not change.

This is a "conditional" storm, meaning if the conditions have to be just right. We may have snow with temperatures above 32. Also, we have had warm temperatures lately...  so how that impacts the accumulation is somewhat of a mystery.

Most of the data shows snow in Region 8. Amounts and location of heaviest snow varies quite a bit, but the Euro, Canadian, GFS, NAM, StormCAST, RPM all show snow in Region 8 on Thursday PM.

We're watching it closely! Stay tuned to my Twitter feed at @ryanvaughan and stay tuned to Bryan McCormick tomorrow morning..

-Ryan

The weekend forecast is going to be a doozy. Region 8 spans 22 counties and on Sunday, some parts of Region 8 could be in the 40s, while others are near 70! We've gained more confidence in Saturday's forecast, with all of Region 8 seeing highs in the mid 60s to around 70, with colder air JUST to our north (north of the front). Here's the Euro model for Saturday. Click image to enlarge:

Sunday is when it gets fun! The Euro shows a SHARP temperature gradient across Region 8! The front dips in from the north. Some of us are warm and some of us are cold! Here's what the Euro shows for Sunday afternoon highs. Click image to enlarge:
Here's the tough part. Not all of the data agrees with the position of the front. Take a look at the NAM for the forecast highs on Sunday. Let me say, I believe it has the front pushing too far South:
SO, as a broadcaster, we have a few challenges. First, how do we plot the temperature on the 7 day forecast? I plan to make a special graphic that pops out of the 7 day forecast to show a map of the temps. Tell me tonight if it works and is understandable! Second challenge is to explain the difficulty of this forecast. That's why I'm blogging, but I plan to make a graphic tonight to explain it as well. On Monday and Tuesday, I made a similar graphic. We have known for several days that the weekend forecast would be tough! Stay tuned!

Ryan

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not a big fan of Winter. If I could wishcast, the answer to the title of this blog would be YES. However, my wishcasting typically does not work out too well. So, is Winter over? If you answer that question by questioning if we will have any more "significant" winter storms that impact travel, I would say winter is likely over. If you answer that question by cold temperatures, it's not over at all! In fact, many areas will drop to around freezing over the next couple of nights.

On average, Jonesboro's last freeze is around March 31st. The latest last freeze for Jonesboro was May 6th in 1927! That was a long time ago. In recent years, we had hard freeze in April of 2007 that hurt a lot of Spring vegetation. While that is possible, the chances of that happening again are low. Here were the lows on April 8, 2007. Graphic from the NWS in Little Rock:

I think Winter is winding down and the days of getting out of school and sledding are gone, but don't start planting flowers yet! We still have more freezing temperatures and frost over the next couple of weeks.

Let me leave you on a bright note... We're expecting 70s on Saturday!!!

-Ryan