ryansmorningblog-Bay-Net

If the last three runs of the GFS are correct, we could be quite chilly on Friday and Saturday. The GFS and Canadian model show the upper-level low cutting off and going over Region 8. This would result in clouds, showers, and cool temperatures. It might result in some hail producing storms as well.

One of the most difficult things to explain on TV is a record low maximum. Friday's record low maximum is 59. Meaning, that out of all of the "high" temperatures on record, 59 is the coolest. We could easily break that record in Jonesboro on Friday. Right now, we have a forecast high of only 53 degrees. Some data suggests that we may not make it out of the 40s. That is CRAZY for May 3rd!

One fly in the ointment would be if we stay into the 60s until after midnight on Thursday night into Friday morning. In that case, the "official" high would be to warm to break a record. We will watch the track of the upper-level low closely over the next few days.

Here's a 3D look:

Are you tired of cold air?

Ryan

It's is expected to take a little dip tomorrow afternoon and evening...


But, by Wednesday, it goes back up and looks good all day on Wednesday!

The Storm Prediction Center is a branch of NOAA and the NWS that issue outlooks on severe weather, severe weather watches, discussions on ongoing severe weather (MDs), and fire outlooks. Before I wanted to go the television route, this was my dream job. Maybe I'll do that when I grow up.

Let's first talk about the Day 1 outlook for today, April 9th. This is an animation showing the probability of hail, probability of damaging wind, probability of a tornado, and the actual Day 1 outlook:

Notice there is a moderate risk (red) for parts of Texas and Oklahoma. We talked about this possibility last night at 10:00. The probabilities of severe weather dictate the outlooks. Look at this conversion chart from the SPC:
 So, by looking at this chart, the reason that parts of OK/TX are in a moderate risk are not specially because of the tornado threat (10%) and not specifically for damaging winds (30%), but for large hail, with a 45% hatched area. That means that there is a 45% chance of severe hail (1"+) with 25 miles of any given point in that area. The "hatched" area means there is a 10% or greater chance of significant, severe hail of 2" or greater! The Day 1 outlook is broken down to the three forms of severe weather: hail, wind, and tornadoes.

The Day 2 outlook combines all three for the probability and the conversion chart is different. Here's the Day 2 outlook and probability of severe weather:

If you notice, there is a large area with a 45% probability of severe weather. The conversion table is different on the Day 2 outlooks. Here is the chart:
  So, why is there not a moderate risk on the Day 2 outlook? WELL, while there is a 45% probability of severe weather, it is not a HATCHED area (yet) for significant, severe weather. This Day 2 outlook is the closest to a moderate risk without being a moderate risk that I have seen from the SPC. But, their reasoning make perfect sense.

If SPC still thinks there is a 45% chance of severe weather tomorrow, there will at least be a moderate risk for Region 8. We will wait and see.

Have a great day. More on the severe weather threat later today here and online.... and on Twitter at @ryanvaughan throughout the day!

Ryan

I'm so sick of the colder weather, but at least the colder weather yields no severe weather. It has been a LONG time since we have gone through the first week of April without severe weather. So, cold weather is not always bad. Today may be a record-breaker. Our forecast high is 49. If we only go to 49 degrees, it will be the coldest high temperature on record for Jonesboro. We'll watch it... To finish this blog post, here's a short video...