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30 years ago, December of 1983, it was COLD! Really Cold! It was so cold that the Arkansas River froze over! ABC affiliate, KATV has video of the Arkansas River from that month and it was posted on their blog. Here is the clip:

I went back into the record books and grabbed the December of 1983 climate log from Jonesboro. In 1983, Terry Wood kept that log and you can see his signature near the bottom of the page. You can click the image to enlarge, but let me point out some points. First, on December 18th, we had a high of 34. That night, the temperature fell to 8 degrees! We did not go above freezing for the rest of the month! Take a look:

Other interesting things to notice:

• We had 3 nights below ZERO.
• The HIGH temperature on Christmas Eve in 1983 was a whopping 6 degrees.
• The coldest morning was Christmas morning at 5 degrees BELOW ZERO.

I'm on vacation right now, but since I'm a weather geek... I'm still looking at the weather. There is a chance of severe weather and flooding rains on Saturday. Here are the bullet points as of Friday at 6:30 am:

• Heavy rain and flooding is greatest threat.
• 2-4" of rainfall will likely fall, with the chance of higher amounts in some spots.
• There is a chance of severe weather during the daytime hours on Saturday.
• Straight line winds are the greatest threat, but a tornado can not be ruled out.

This weekend, Jonesboro is going to be PACKED. The NEA basketball tournament is underway, the Holiday Extravaganza tournament is happening, it's a busy travel weekend, and a lot of people will be shopping! The weather may impact a lot of people!

Here are the bullet points to focus on:

• Heavy rain is the main threat. Rain chances will exist Fri-Sun, but most of the rain will fall on Saturday.
• There is a chance of severe weather, with the greatest risk on Saturday.
• 2-3" of rain is likely with this storm.
• Wintry weather is highly unlikely anywhere in Region 8.

Here is the official storm totals map that was released by the NWS in Little Rock. Not too far off from our forecast:



As we said all week and despite the rumors, we never though it would be as bad as 2009. Scroll through the blog and you will see me mentioning that a few times.

Have a great day and be safe on the roads! I'm spending the rest of my day at home with my family! Bring on the fireplace, the SEC championship, and some NBA 2K14 with my kids!

Ryan

I'm going to make this update as simple as possible to avoid confusion. Here are the bullet points at 8:30 am on Thursday morning:

• We already have some areas in Region 8 at or below freezing. 
• The freezing line will move from the NW to the SE through the day.
• Precipitation will increase through the day.
• Once you hit 32 or below, the rain will be considered freezing rain.
• Tonight and Friday is when the precipitation accumulates.
• Freezing rain and sleet at the start.
• Many areas switch to all sleet between 3-7 am Friday morning.
• Many areas switch to snow by lunchtime on Friday.
• I have no idea if you will lose power or if your kids will go to school. LOL :)
• This is a bad storm, but not as bad as 2009 because we should switch to sleet.
• Another round comes on Sunday and looks like it will be freezing rain.
• The coldest air in over a decade comes in next week.

It's Tuesday morning and it's still looking like a significant Winter Storm is going to impact Region 8 by Friday. Let's breakdown the points:

• Travel conditions deteriorate Thursday night and especially Friday.
• All modes of wintry precipitation are possible. Likely to go from rain to freezing rain... to sleet... and then to some snow.
• Right now, 0.50"-0.75" of glaze is possible with some sleet and snow on top of it.
• Worst case scenario would be more freezing rain than anything.
• Winter Storm Warnings and possibly Ice Storm Warnings are likely.
• A Winter Storm WATCH has already been issued for some areas to give advanced warning of what is going to happen on Thursday night and Friday.
• A second round of wintry mix will come in Saturday night. and Sunday AND is starting to look as impressive as the first round.
• Best case scenario (not likely) is to stay above 32 degrees and it be just rain. That might happen closer to I40.

• We are expecting TWO rounds of precipitation. At this time, it appears the first round comes in Thursday PM into Friday. The second wave comes Saturday night into Sunday morning.
• Freezing rain and sleet appear to be the main type of precipitation, but snow will fall, too.
• Just a reminder, freezing rain falls as liquid and glazes as ice.
• Sleet falls as pellets of ice.
• Snow... well, you always remember what snow looks like!
• This could be a bad storm, but it will likely not be as bad as 2009's ice storm.
• Lastly, I don't know if you will be out of school on Friday!

The above image is an animation of two rounds of precipitation that is expected to come through Region 8, Thursday night though Sunday. The TYPE of precipitation is still questionable. Many of you wonder why we can get freezing rain instead of snow. Let's take a look at the forecast sounding for Friday:
The above image is a graph that we use to see what the temperature does as you go UP through the atmosphere. Let's start at the top of the image (high in the atmosphere) where the air is BELOW 32 and snow forms. As the snow falls, it hits an area of air that is ABOVE 32 degrees and the snow flakes melt into liquid drops. Those drops continue to fall and then hit the air near the surface that is 32 degrees or below. If there is a thick enough column of air, those drops can refreeze into SLEET. If they do not have time to refreeze, they fall as liquid and freeze on contact. This forms a glaze of ice on everything and puts weight on trees and power lines. As you can imagine, we want to see sleet or snow instead of freezing rain!

To be honest, I hope the data shifts to an all rain event, but that is looking less likely. I'm not a fan of winter and REALLY not a fan of ice.

We will continue to watch the situation. Make sure you catch all of the updates on Twitter at @ryanvaughan

Take care,
Ryan