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The sun is shining and we are at the start of WARMING TREND! To most people, that is good news. Take a look at this graph. It shows what the models are indicating for the next 7 days. The trend is upward:

If you look at the temperature anomalies today, you can see that we are 20 degrees below average:
By the end of next week, the models are showing us 20 degrees ABOVE average! Yes, this is a complete pattern change. This is a NW flow changing to a SW flow and it is warmer and more awesome!:
So, if you are doing the math, you are thinking... wait a minute... Is this showing that we will be NEAR 70 degrees at the end of next week. YES, that is what the data is indicating. Here's a snapshot of what the GFS is showing for temperatures at the end of next week (10 days or so):
While the pattern change appears to be fairly certain, seeing highs in the 70s is still not guaranteed. We are way too early for details like that, but it is looking better and better. Die Winter, Die. You can bet that I'll be watching this unfold and will hopefully keep a smile on my face.

Ryan

As of right now, I'm not budging on the forecast. The evening data from one model (NAM) is odd. I'm still trying to see why it is so different from previous runs. Regardless, it still keeps the accumulating snow south of Region 8. It does show the third wave (mentioned in previous blogs) on Tuesday PM bringing a swath of snow through Memphis. I'm not sold on that yet. Here are my bullet points at 10:00 PM:

• Flurries or brief snow showers in Region 8 could bring a dusting to very ISOLATED areas. Not widespread on Monday morning.
• At this time, it appears that most of the accumulating snow stays south of Region 8.
• We still need to watch the 3rd wave closely. That is Tuesday evening. At this time, I'm not concerned, but let's watch it. I don't want something to sneak up on us!

I'm back in the office and sipping some coffee. I'm glad to be getting back into my routine, but I wish I could come back to an easier forecast. The snow coming in tomorrow is painfully close, but I'm cautiously happy to report that most of it will stay south of here. Notice, I said "most", not "all". So, here are the bullet points at 3:30 PM on Sunday for the storm coming in tomorrow and Tuesday:

• Most of you will see snowflakes falling.
• BUT, Most of you will not see much accumulation.
• The greater chance for significant accumulation is south of I-40.
• I see three chances for snow over a 36 hour period
• First chance is tomorrow morning (Monday AM) and it could give some brief snow showers for Region 8 and could give some spots a dusting, even on roads. Key words: BRIEF and LIGHT.
• I suppose there is a chance that it will be enough to cancel some schools, but I don't speak on behlaf of the schools.
• Second chance is the main round. It comes in tomorrow night and mainly gives snow to areas south of the KAIT viewing area, aka Region 8. I expect it to clip White, Woodruff, Cross, St, Francis, and Crittenden counties.
• Third chance is the chance I just noticed. There could be some brief snow showers Tuesday, during the day. This is still questionable, but if it materializes, could bring a dusting in some parts of Region 8, especially in the White river Valley area. Stay tuned.
• So, with all of that said, here's what we are thinking right now:

I'm not completely sounding the all clear, but most of the snow in the forecast tomorrow will likely pass south of Region 8. If you read the blog last night, I was strongly leaning to this solution and I agree even more after the morning data. Here are the bullet points as of 10AM on Sunday morning:

Most of us are sick of snow and there is a lot of talk about more snow on Monday. While there is a chance of snow and Winter Storm Watches have been posted for parts of the state, there is a CHANCE that we MISS IT.

I'm still staying quarantined to the bedroom until sometime tomorrow and I'm not going back to work yet, but I'm feeling much better. I'm being cautious because I don't want my family or coworkers to get sick! The flu is no joke.

I have started to look at data again and sadly, we're looking at more wintry weather in our future. I just exchanged some texts with Andrew and we both agree that a dusting to 1", maybe 2", is possible Friday night. Here are the he bullet points for Friday night:

• It's not much, but enough to cause some travel problems.
• Isolated areas might get 1-2", but most stay close to 1".
• Snow will likely start after sunset on Friday evening and will end by sunrise on Saturday.
• We go above freezing on Saturday.

• This is NOT as bad as 2009, but power outages are expected.
• Sleet and freezing rain should start overspreading Region 8 in the morning. SW portions of Region 8 (White, Cleburne, Independence, Woodruff) could have precipitation as early at 8:00 am.
• The rest of Region 8 should have sleet and freezing rain start between 10am-Noon.
• Precipitation TYPE will be tough to forecast. We know there will be a warm layer aloft that will melt the snowflakes, but will those drops have time to freeze into SLEET or will they fall as rain and freeze on contact? That's the million dollar question. Probably both at times...
• Sleet makes for bad roads, freezing rain causes power outages. Pick your poison.
• WATCH out for ice glazed sidewalks!
• This should be gone by late afternoon, or at least much, much lighter.

If you hear more sleet than freezing rain, then you will likely have no power problems. If you have rain and your thermometer is 32 or below, you are at a higher risk of losing power. If it's snowing, then enjoy it! I doubt many of us will see just plain ole rain, but if it is raining and 33 or above... Sit back and count your blessings!

I'm going to lay down for about 30 minutes before prepping for the 10:00 News. Have a great night and be safe tomorrow.

Ryan

As I type this, the snow is starting to end at my house and it's time to focus on the next storm. Today's storm was a doozy with more snow in our NW counties and more ICE in our southern counties. Here at my house and in Jonesboro, we saw every type of preciptation!

 As of 9:45 PM on Sunday night, I estimate about 3,000 without power in Region 8 due to freezing rain bringing down power lines. Most of the power issues were South and East of Jonesboro.

Now, it's time to chat about Tuesday's storm. Tuesday is a day we have highlighted for icing since last Tuesday. The models have been very consistent with freezing air at the surface and a layer of warm air aloft. This appears to be a freezing rain setup. The timing of this storm has been a little questionable, but the models are coming into agreement that we will have freezing rain falling across most of Region 8 by lunchtime on Tuesday. The GFS model has been VERY consistent. This is the GFS at lunch time on Tuesday:

Notice, the surface low is passing south of us and we are on the "cold" side of the storm. The red line is the freezing line. Everything above that line is 32 or below. The pink area is freezing rain. Freezing rain falls as liquid and freezes on contact, causing a glaze of ice on exposed surfaces.

The NAM is similar, here is the "simulated radar" product from the NAM on Tuesday morning. All of the precipitation north of the red line on this map should be wintry weather:
So, Tuesday's forecast has not changed for 5 days. That does not mean we can't be thrown a curve ball, but that's what we are expected at this time. Power line damage may become a problem again.

I'll have a new blog on Monday that will be more detailed and I'll break down the bullet points of this storm.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

I've looked at the evening data, chatted with the team, and thrown some darts. Here's what I think will happen tomorrow in a simple explanation:

• Winter Weather Advisory
• Travel problems are highly likely.
• I expect some school districts to close on Monday.
• We will start the morning with scattered rain or drizzle.
• Between 10am-Noon on Sunday, sleet and freezing rain overspreads most of Region 8.
• By 3PM on Sunday afternoon, most places should switch to all sleet.
• By 6PM Sunday evening, a sleet/snow mix should be taking place.
• Precipitation moves out by midnight.
• Accumulations will vary greatly based on the type of precipitation. I explain WHY in this video: click here.
• While the "type" of precipitation is in question, it appears most of Region 8 will see some type of frozen precipitation.
• Be careful!

New data is coming in and it looks a little more ICY on Sunday (tomorrow). As you recall from the earlier blog, sleet can drastically lower "accumulation" totals because it does not "accumulate" as fast as the puffy snowflakes. Sleet, snow, and freezing rain all accumulates differently. Because of that, let's just talk about the "liquid equivalent" for a moment. That means, let's pretend we melt all of it to liquid and show how much will fall and where. Here's the liquid equivalent of the sleet in orange, freezing rain in pink, snow in blue. The green precipitation map just shows the rain equivalent. Notice how much sleet and freezing rain (glaze) is projected to fall according to this model instead of snow. Click to enlarge:

First off, not everyone will see snow on Sunday. It's looking more and more likely that a narrow band of snow will be setting up and it may not even cover the viewing area. Before we dig into the data, let's breakdown what we know right now, at 8:00 am on Saturday morning:

• Today, we will only see rain showers. Plain ole rain. The heaviest will be this evening (Saturday evening).
• Early Sunday morning, the rain may switch to a little wintry mix, but no huge problems are expected. The greatest threat on Sunday morning appears to be in Randolph and Clay counties in Arkansas, and SE Missouri.
• Sunday afternoon and evening, another round of precipitation moves into parts of Region 8 and it appears to be snow.
• Accumulations of 1-3" are POSSIBLE in Region 8. Nothing is guaranteed. 
• At this time, I expect travel problems in parts of Region 8, Sunday evening.

It may be 7 days out, but we're going to have to watch next week closely. As shallow cold air lingers around Region 8, and an area of low pressure moves south of us... we may have to watch for ice. The pattern supports this icy-looking setup. It's what we call an "overrunning" event, where warmer air goes up and over the cold <32 air. The result is typically icy. It's too early to get worried and definitely too early to say if we will have problems, but it's not too early to keep an eye on next Tuesday, February 4th. Stay tuned.

Stay warm!
Ryan

This was the radar image 15 years ago as 30+ tornadoes went across Region 8. It was the worst tornado outbreak to hit the state of Arkansas. Towns like Beebe, Pleasant Plains, Evening Star, Newark, and many more had excessive damage. Terry Wood and Doug Doggett were on KAIT for 2 days passing along information to keep Region 8 safe. It was a very dangerous couple of days. Here are some shorts clips:
While January 21-22 were horrible, the entire month of January 1999 was active! This afternoon, I found the old climate log from Terry Wood from that month. We had ice, snow, tornadoes on several day, and wildly fluctuating temperatures. Click this image to enlarge:
If you can't read it too well, let me point out some things:

• Ice storm on January 1.
• Wind Chill -15 on January 4th.
• More Ice on January 7th and 8th.
• January 17th had numerous tornadoes, Jonesboro, Tuckerman, Grubbs, Cash, Pocahontas, Newport
• January 21 into the morning of the 22nd was the largest tornado outbreak in history for Arkansas.

Thank YOU!!! You guys took the time out of your day to vote and I appreciate it! I'm sure my face in your Facebook news feed became annoying because I was sick of seeing my face as well!

The website www.weatherist.com will be making their official announcement on Monday, but it appears WE (all of us) won. As I mentioned at the start of this competition, there are many people in my business more deserving of the title. I love my job, I love working in Region 8, and I hope it shows each night.

But, I wanted to push this competition because $500+ will go to The Children's Shelter in Walnut Ridge. While $500 is a lot of money for them, I think Region 8 can do even more. That's why I want to encourage you to donate to them online.

Some of you have asked why I chose The Children's Shelter and if there was a personal connection. The short answer is, yes.

There is something going in Arkansas that we don't talk about much, we don't see it on the news too often, and honestly, we try to ignore it. Over 4,000 kids are in the foster care system in Arkansas. Over 1,000 of those kids are in Region 8. What does that mean? Generally speaking, these kids do not have parents that can take care of them. It might be temporary or it might be permanent, but they need somewhere to sleep, eat, be encouraged, be trained, and be loved. I chose The Children's Shelter because that is a place where a small percentage of these kids can go.

What can you do to help the problem? There are several options:

• Become foster parents.
• Adopt the kids that need permanent homes
• Donate to a children's shelter, home, or orphanage. 
• Volunteer time at a local organization that helps this problem: The Call, Christians for Kids, Children's Shelter, Children's Home in Paragould, or many more.
• Constantly ask your State Senators and Representatives what we are doing to help solve this problem.

The world of television is evolving as stations, television groups, and networks negotiate with cable companies and satellite providers over retransmission contracts. In these battles, both sides are blaming each other. Simply put, they are negotiating what the carrier must pay to take the signal and sell it to you.

It's halftime of the ASU game. The game has been a nice diversion from missing the forecast today. Simply put, we thought there would be more snow on the backside of the rain. Sometimes we forecast and God laughs. It's part of the business, but it does not make it feel any better.

Yesterday, I felt confident in our forecast. Our team was going on the low end of the all of the sources you guys can use for a forecast. Over the past 48 hours, the data continued showing less and less snow. You can scroll through the blog and look at our forecast, but we did not even get the low end of a "dusting" in most spots.

Now, I know some of you got snow. I understand that, but there are some more populated areas that missed most of the snow.

I have thick skin. I try not to take things personal, but my biggest critic is myself. It's hard to ignore my own mind. As with any forecast, I reflect back on what went right and what went wrong. I'm not sure if there is anything we could have done differently. We simply missed it.

I've had an email that called me a loser, a bread man that cussed me on Facebook, and a duck hunter that vented to me on Twitter. Most of that, I laughed at...

If the forecast truly messed up your plans or left you with too much milk or bread, I apologize. We will do better in the future. I promise.

Have a great evening, it's time to watch the second half of the football game. Let's Go Red Wolves!

Ryan

PS- I am glad the kids are not gaining another June School Day.

Good Saturday morning everyone! I've been looking over the data this morning and depending on your perspective, I might have some good news or bad news. We have adjusted the snowfall forecast for Sunday to reflect LOWER amounts. If you check the previous blog posts, the forecast has not changed that much, but enough to take note.

Remember, it is going to get cold fast, so the rain that falls before the snow will be freezing on the roads and sidewalks. Be careful.

I don't have a lot of time to write, but wanted to show you the latest adjustments from the Storm Center this morning. Andrew Wilson will have a full update at 6:00 and 10:00. Unless something changes, I hope to be at the basketball courts with my family, cheering on my son!

I hope you have a great weekend! I'll be back at the computers later tonight for another update.

Ryan

Here's a quick update. First, here are the bullet points at 9:00 am on Friday:

• We will start as rain on Saturday night and switch to snow on Sunday morning.
• At this time, 1-2" of snow is expected on Sunday. This could change.
• Very cold air with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits is still possible early next week.
• I'm going to increase snow chances *a little* on Monday for some quick snow showers.
• Another round on Winter weather will come on Wednesday into Thursday.
• The wintry weather Wed-Thu could be snow, switching to freezing rain (ice glaze).

There is a lot to discuss and it's too early to get cute with details, but the next 7 days could be very active. As always, let me break down the bullet points:

• We are expecting some snow on Sunday in parts of Region 8.
• We are expecting VERY cold air next week.
• There is a chance of another winter storm on Wednesday.