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It may be 7 days out, but we're going to have to watch next week closely. As shallow cold air lingers around Region 8, and an area of low pressure moves south of us... we may have to watch for ice. The pattern supports this icy-looking setup. It's what we call an "overrunning" event, where warmer air goes up and over the cold <32 air. The result is typically icy. It's too early to get worried and definitely too early to say if we will have problems, but it's not too early to keep an eye on next Tuesday, February 4th. Stay tuned.

Stay warm!
Ryan

This was the radar image 15 years ago as 30+ tornadoes went across Region 8. It was the worst tornado outbreak to hit the state of Arkansas. Towns like Beebe, Pleasant Plains, Evening Star, Newark, and many more had excessive damage. Terry Wood and Doug Doggett were on KAIT for 2 days passing along information to keep Region 8 safe. It was a very dangerous couple of days. Here are some shorts clips:
While January 21-22 were horrible, the entire month of January 1999 was active! This afternoon, I found the old climate log from Terry Wood from that month. We had ice, snow, tornadoes on several day, and wildly fluctuating temperatures. Click this image to enlarge:
If you can't read it too well, let me point out some things:

• Ice storm on January 1.
• Wind Chill -15 on January 4th.
• More Ice on January 7th and 8th.
• January 17th had numerous tornadoes, Jonesboro, Tuckerman, Grubbs, Cash, Pocahontas, Newport
• January 21 into the morning of the 22nd was the largest tornado outbreak in history for Arkansas.

Thank YOU!!! You guys took the time out of your day to vote and I appreciate it! I'm sure my face in your Facebook news feed became annoying because I was sick of seeing my face as well!

The website www.weatherist.com will be making their official announcement on Monday, but it appears WE (all of us) won. As I mentioned at the start of this competition, there are many people in my business more deserving of the title. I love my job, I love working in Region 8, and I hope it shows each night.

But, I wanted to push this competition because $500+ will go to The Children's Shelter in Walnut Ridge. While $500 is a lot of money for them, I think Region 8 can do even more. That's why I want to encourage you to donate to them online.

Some of you have asked why I chose The Children's Shelter and if there was a personal connection. The short answer is, yes.

There is something going in Arkansas that we don't talk about much, we don't see it on the news too often, and honestly, we try to ignore it. Over 4,000 kids are in the foster care system in Arkansas. Over 1,000 of those kids are in Region 8. What does that mean? Generally speaking, these kids do not have parents that can take care of them. It might be temporary or it might be permanent, but they need somewhere to sleep, eat, be encouraged, be trained, and be loved. I chose The Children's Shelter because that is a place where a small percentage of these kids can go.

What can you do to help the problem? There are several options:

• Become foster parents.
• Adopt the kids that need permanent homes
• Donate to a children's shelter, home, or orphanage. 
• Volunteer time at a local organization that helps this problem: The Call, Christians for Kids, Children's Shelter, Children's Home in Paragould, or many more.
• Constantly ask your State Senators and Representatives what we are doing to help solve this problem.

The world of television is evolving as stations, television groups, and networks negotiate with cable companies and satellite providers over retransmission contracts. In these battles, both sides are blaming each other. Simply put, they are negotiating what the carrier must pay to take the signal and sell it to you.

It's halftime of the ASU game. The game has been a nice diversion from missing the forecast today. Simply put, we thought there would be more snow on the backside of the rain. Sometimes we forecast and God laughs. It's part of the business, but it does not make it feel any better.

Yesterday, I felt confident in our forecast. Our team was going on the low end of the all of the sources you guys can use for a forecast. Over the past 48 hours, the data continued showing less and less snow. You can scroll through the blog and look at our forecast, but we did not even get the low end of a "dusting" in most spots.

Now, I know some of you got snow. I understand that, but there are some more populated areas that missed most of the snow.

I have thick skin. I try not to take things personal, but my biggest critic is myself. It's hard to ignore my own mind. As with any forecast, I reflect back on what went right and what went wrong. I'm not sure if there is anything we could have done differently. We simply missed it.

I've had an email that called me a loser, a bread man that cussed me on Facebook, and a duck hunter that vented to me on Twitter. Most of that, I laughed at...

If the forecast truly messed up your plans or left you with too much milk or bread, I apologize. We will do better in the future. I promise.

Have a great evening, it's time to watch the second half of the football game. Let's Go Red Wolves!

Ryan

PS- I am glad the kids are not gaining another June School Day.

Good Saturday morning everyone! I've been looking over the data this morning and depending on your perspective, I might have some good news or bad news. We have adjusted the snowfall forecast for Sunday to reflect LOWER amounts. If you check the previous blog posts, the forecast has not changed that much, but enough to take note.

Remember, it is going to get cold fast, so the rain that falls before the snow will be freezing on the roads and sidewalks. Be careful.

I don't have a lot of time to write, but wanted to show you the latest adjustments from the Storm Center this morning. Andrew Wilson will have a full update at 6:00 and 10:00. Unless something changes, I hope to be at the basketball courts with my family, cheering on my son!

I hope you have a great weekend! I'll be back at the computers later tonight for another update.

Ryan

Here's a quick update. First, here are the bullet points at 9:00 am on Friday:

• We will start as rain on Saturday night and switch to snow on Sunday morning.
• At this time, 1-2" of snow is expected on Sunday. This could change.
• Very cold air with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits is still possible early next week.
• I'm going to increase snow chances *a little* on Monday for some quick snow showers.
• Another round on Winter weather will come on Wednesday into Thursday.
• The wintry weather Wed-Thu could be snow, switching to freezing rain (ice glaze).

There is a lot to discuss and it's too early to get cute with details, but the next 7 days could be very active. As always, let me break down the bullet points:

• We are expecting some snow on Sunday in parts of Region 8.
• We are expecting VERY cold air next week.
• There is a chance of another winter storm on Wednesday.