ryansmorningblog-Bay-Net

The sun is shining and we are at the start of WARMING TREND! To most people, that is good news. Take a look at this graph. It shows what the models are indicating for the next 7 days. The trend is upward:

If you look at the temperature anomalies today, you can see that we are 20 degrees below average:
By the end of next week, the models are showing us 20 degrees ABOVE average! Yes, this is a complete pattern change. This is a NW flow changing to a SW flow and it is warmer and more awesome!:
So, if you are doing the math, you are thinking... wait a minute... Is this showing that we will be NEAR 70 degrees at the end of next week. YES, that is what the data is indicating. Here's a snapshot of what the GFS is showing for temperatures at the end of next week (10 days or so):
While the pattern change appears to be fairly certain, seeing highs in the 70s is still not guaranteed. We are way too early for details like that, but it is looking better and better. Die Winter, Die. You can bet that I'll be watching this unfold and will hopefully keep a smile on my face.

Ryan

As of right now, I'm not budging on the forecast. The evening data from one model (NAM) is odd. I'm still trying to see why it is so different from previous runs. Regardless, it still keeps the accumulating snow south of Region 8. It does show the third wave (mentioned in previous blogs) on Tuesday PM bringing a swath of snow through Memphis. I'm not sold on that yet. Here are my bullet points at 10:00 PM:

• Flurries or brief snow showers in Region 8 could bring a dusting to very ISOLATED areas. Not widespread on Monday morning.
• At this time, it appears that most of the accumulating snow stays south of Region 8.
• We still need to watch the 3rd wave closely. That is Tuesday evening. At this time, I'm not concerned, but let's watch it. I don't want something to sneak up on us!

I'm back in the office and sipping some coffee. I'm glad to be getting back into my routine, but I wish I could come back to an easier forecast. The snow coming in tomorrow is painfully close, but I'm cautiously happy to report that most of it will stay south of here. Notice, I said "most", not "all". So, here are the bullet points at 3:30 PM on Sunday for the storm coming in tomorrow and Tuesday:

• Most of you will see snowflakes falling.
• BUT, Most of you will not see much accumulation.
• The greater chance for significant accumulation is south of I-40.
• I see three chances for snow over a 36 hour period
• First chance is tomorrow morning (Monday AM) and it could give some brief snow showers for Region 8 and could give some spots a dusting, even on roads. Key words: BRIEF and LIGHT.
• I suppose there is a chance that it will be enough to cancel some schools, but I don't speak on behlaf of the schools.
• Second chance is the main round. It comes in tomorrow night and mainly gives snow to areas south of the KAIT viewing area, aka Region 8. I expect it to clip White, Woodruff, Cross, St, Francis, and Crittenden counties.
• Third chance is the chance I just noticed. There could be some brief snow showers Tuesday, during the day. This is still questionable, but if it materializes, could bring a dusting in some parts of Region 8, especially in the White river Valley area. Stay tuned.
• So, with all of that said, here's what we are thinking right now:

I'm not completely sounding the all clear, but most of the snow in the forecast tomorrow will likely pass south of Region 8. If you read the blog last night, I was strongly leaning to this solution and I agree even more after the morning data. Here are the bullet points as of 10AM on Sunday morning:

Most of us are sick of snow and there is a lot of talk about more snow on Monday. While there is a chance of snow and Winter Storm Watches have been posted for parts of the state, there is a CHANCE that we MISS IT.

I'm still staying quarantined to the bedroom until sometime tomorrow and I'm not going back to work yet, but I'm feeling much better. I'm being cautious because I don't want my family or coworkers to get sick! The flu is no joke.

I have started to look at data again and sadly, we're looking at more wintry weather in our future. I just exchanged some texts with Andrew and we both agree that a dusting to 1", maybe 2", is possible Friday night. Here are the he bullet points for Friday night:

• It's not much, but enough to cause some travel problems.
• Isolated areas might get 1-2", but most stay close to 1".
• Snow will likely start after sunset on Friday evening and will end by sunrise on Saturday.
• We go above freezing on Saturday.

• This is NOT as bad as 2009, but power outages are expected.
• Sleet and freezing rain should start overspreading Region 8 in the morning. SW portions of Region 8 (White, Cleburne, Independence, Woodruff) could have precipitation as early at 8:00 am.
• The rest of Region 8 should have sleet and freezing rain start between 10am-Noon.
• Precipitation TYPE will be tough to forecast. We know there will be a warm layer aloft that will melt the snowflakes, but will those drops have time to freeze into SLEET or will they fall as rain and freeze on contact? That's the million dollar question. Probably both at times...
• Sleet makes for bad roads, freezing rain causes power outages. Pick your poison.
• WATCH out for ice glazed sidewalks!
• This should be gone by late afternoon, or at least much, much lighter.

If you hear more sleet than freezing rain, then you will likely have no power problems. If you have rain and your thermometer is 32 or below, you are at a higher risk of losing power. If it's snowing, then enjoy it! I doubt many of us will see just plain ole rain, but if it is raining and 33 or above... Sit back and count your blessings!

I'm going to lay down for about 30 minutes before prepping for the 10:00 News. Have a great night and be safe tomorrow.

Ryan

As I type this, the snow is starting to end at my house and it's time to focus on the next storm. Today's storm was a doozy with more snow in our NW counties and more ICE in our southern counties. Here at my house and in Jonesboro, we saw every type of preciptation!

 As of 9:45 PM on Sunday night, I estimate about 3,000 without power in Region 8 due to freezing rain bringing down power lines. Most of the power issues were South and East of Jonesboro.

Now, it's time to chat about Tuesday's storm. Tuesday is a day we have highlighted for icing since last Tuesday. The models have been very consistent with freezing air at the surface and a layer of warm air aloft. This appears to be a freezing rain setup. The timing of this storm has been a little questionable, but the models are coming into agreement that we will have freezing rain falling across most of Region 8 by lunchtime on Tuesday. The GFS model has been VERY consistent. This is the GFS at lunch time on Tuesday:

Notice, the surface low is passing south of us and we are on the "cold" side of the storm. The red line is the freezing line. Everything above that line is 32 or below. The pink area is freezing rain. Freezing rain falls as liquid and freezes on contact, causing a glaze of ice on exposed surfaces.

The NAM is similar, here is the "simulated radar" product from the NAM on Tuesday morning. All of the precipitation north of the red line on this map should be wintry weather:
So, Tuesday's forecast has not changed for 5 days. That does not mean we can't be thrown a curve ball, but that's what we are expected at this time. Power line damage may become a problem again.

I'll have a new blog on Monday that will be more detailed and I'll break down the bullet points of this storm.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

I've looked at the evening data, chatted with the team, and thrown some darts. Here's what I think will happen tomorrow in a simple explanation:

• Winter Weather Advisory
• Travel problems are highly likely.
• I expect some school districts to close on Monday.
• We will start the morning with scattered rain or drizzle.
• Between 10am-Noon on Sunday, sleet and freezing rain overspreads most of Region 8.
• By 3PM on Sunday afternoon, most places should switch to all sleet.
• By 6PM Sunday evening, a sleet/snow mix should be taking place.
• Precipitation moves out by midnight.
• Accumulations will vary greatly based on the type of precipitation. I explain WHY in this video: click here.
• While the "type" of precipitation is in question, it appears most of Region 8 will see some type of frozen precipitation.
• Be careful!

New data is coming in and it looks a little more ICY on Sunday (tomorrow). As you recall from the earlier blog, sleet can drastically lower "accumulation" totals because it does not "accumulate" as fast as the puffy snowflakes. Sleet, snow, and freezing rain all accumulates differently. Because of that, let's just talk about the "liquid equivalent" for a moment. That means, let's pretend we melt all of it to liquid and show how much will fall and where. Here's the liquid equivalent of the sleet in orange, freezing rain in pink, snow in blue. The green precipitation map just shows the rain equivalent. Notice how much sleet and freezing rain (glaze) is projected to fall according to this model instead of snow. Click to enlarge:

First off, not everyone will see snow on Sunday. It's looking more and more likely that a narrow band of snow will be setting up and it may not even cover the viewing area. Before we dig into the data, let's breakdown what we know right now, at 8:00 am on Saturday morning:

• Today, we will only see rain showers. Plain ole rain. The heaviest will be this evening (Saturday evening).
• Early Sunday morning, the rain may switch to a little wintry mix, but no huge problems are expected. The greatest threat on Sunday morning appears to be in Randolph and Clay counties in Arkansas, and SE Missouri.
• Sunday afternoon and evening, another round of precipitation moves into parts of Region 8 and it appears to be snow.
• Accumulations of 1-3" are POSSIBLE in Region 8. Nothing is guaranteed. 
• At this time, I expect travel problems in parts of Region 8, Sunday evening.