As I mentioned all night, we are going to see alot of rain. The above program is BUFKIT and it shows the 00Z NAM. Timestamp goes right to left, but that really does not matter... because it is all rain. This shows 3.5-4" of rain for Jonesboro. I think that is very reasonable based on the setup.
In addition to the flooding threat, we will also run the risk of strong storms. I'm not "as" sold on severe storms as I was yesterday, but we'll have to be watchful. The below graphic is for Friday evening and shows the EHI:
EHI is the Energy Helicity Index and is a number that is derived by the instability available (CAPE) and the spin or helicity present. (CAPE*Helicity/160000) This combination gives us an index to measure the tornado threat. As you can see, the greater threat is in Missouri, even though their instability is not as great... they have more "spin".
Until I see something different, I'm still thinking that flash flooding will be our greatest threat. Don't get me wrong, we'll still have watches and warnings, but when it is all over... flooding may be the bigger problem.
I'll send some tweets with updates tomorrow. I'm WAY sleepy... so excuse typos.
Ryan
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